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Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity

Author

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  • Kerry A. Emanuel

    (Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

To establish useful warning systems for hurricanes, it is necessary to accurately predict both hurricane intensity and track. But although the forecasting of hurricane tracks has improved over the past 30 years, the factors that control the intensity of hurricanes are still poorly understood, leading to almost no reliability in forecasts of hurricane intensity evolution. Efforts to improve intensity forecasts have focused almost exclusively on characterizing the dynamical interactions between hurricanes and their atmospheric environment. Here I use a simple numerical model to demonstrate that, in most cases, the evolution of hurricane intensity depends mainly on three factors: the storm's initial intensity, the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere through which it moves, and the heat exchange with the upper layer of the ocean under the core of the hurricane. Such a limited number of controlling factors offers hope that, given an accurate forecast of a hurricane's track, its intensity can be reliably forecast using very simple models.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerry A. Emanuel, 1999. "Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6754), pages 665-669, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:401:y:1999:i:6754:d:10.1038_44326
    DOI: 10.1038/44326
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Russell H. Glazer & M. M. Ali, 2020. "An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2635-2644, December.
    2. I.-I. Lin & Gustavo Goni & John Knaff & Cristina Forbes & M. Ali, 2013. "Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1481-1500, April.
    3. Ya-Ting Chang & I-I Lin & Hsiao-Ching Huang & Yi-Chun Liao & Chun-Chi Lien, 2020. "The Association of Typhoon Intensity Increase with Translation Speed Increase in the South China Sea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, January.
    4. Debashis Paul & Jagabandhu Panda & Ashish Routray, 2022. "Ocean and atmospheric characteristics associated with the cyclogenesis and rapid intensification of NIO super cyclonic storms during 1981–2020," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 261-289, October.
    5. Ding-Rong Wu & Zhe-Wen Zheng & Ganesh Gopalakrishnan & Chung-Ru Ho & Quanan Zheng, 2021. "Barrier Layer Characteristics for Different Temporal Scales and Its Implication to Tropical Cyclone Enhancement in the Western North Pacific," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, March.
    6. K. K. Basheer Ahammed & Arvind Chandra Pandey & Bikash Ranjan Parida & Wasim & Chandra Shekhar Dwivedi, 2023. "Impact Assessment of Tropical Cyclones Amphan and Nisarga in 2020 in the Northern Indian Ocean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Iris Grossmann & M. Morgan, 2011. "Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 543-579, October.
    8. David Bacon & Nash′at Ahmad & Thomas Dunn & S. Gopalakrishnan & Mary Hall & Ananthakrishna Sarma, 2007. "Hurricane track forecasting with OMEGA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 457-470, June.
    9. Iam-Fei Pun & Johnny C. L. Chan & I.-I. Lin & Kelvin T. F. Chan & James F. Price & Dong Shan Ko & Chun-Chi Lien & Yu-Lun Wu & Hsiao-Ching Huang, 2019. "Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) over Shallow Water," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, July.
    10. R. S. Akhila & J. Kuttippurath & R. Rahul & A. Chakraborty, 2022. "Genesis and simultaneous occurrences of the super cyclone Kyarr and extremely severe cyclone Maha in the Arabian Sea in October 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1133-1150, September.
    11. Naresh Vissa & A. Satyanarayana & B. Prasad Kumar, 2013. "Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 351-371, September.
    12. Kumar Ravi Prakash & Tanuja Nigam & Vimlesh Pant & Navin Chandra, 2021. "On the interaction of mesoscale eddies and a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1981-2001, April.
    13. Shoude Guan & Fei-Fei Jin & Jiwei Tian & I-I Lin & Iam-Fei Pun & Wei Zhao & John Huthnance & Zhao Xu & Wenju Cai & Zhao Jing & Lei Zhou & Ping Liu & Yihan Zhang & Zhiwei Zhang & Chun Zhou & Qingxuan Y, 2024. "Ocean internal tides suppress tropical cyclones in the South China Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. Karthik Balaguru & David R. Judi & L. Ruby Leung, 2016. "Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 99-110, September.

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