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Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices

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  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene

Abstract

Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy was provided, viewing pressure on oil prices mainly as a result of rigid crude oil supply and an expanding world demand for crude oil. A change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in the underlying fundamentals. Market expectations, extracted from call and put option prices, anticipated no change, in the short term, in the underlying fundamentals. Markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy, and with higher probabilities, to rise, rather than fall, above the expected mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 2006/299, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/299
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mouna Aloui & Jarboui Anis, 2023. "The Dynamic Relation between the Oil Price Volatility, Stock Market, Exchange and Interest Rate in GCC Countries: Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) Model," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 114-128.
    3. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Mikropoulou, Christina & Papana, Angeliki, 2016. "Does the S&P500 index lead the crude oil dynamics? A complexity-based approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 239-246.
    4. Nourah Al†Yousef, 2018. "Fundamentals and Oil Price Behaviour: New Evidence from Co†integration Tests with Structural Breaks and Granger Causality Tests," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    6. AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
    7. Basili, Marcello & Fontini, Fulvio, 2012. "Biofuel from Jatropha curcas: Environmental sustainability and option value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-8.

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