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Russia on the pathways to carbon neutrality: forks on roadmaps

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  • Igor A. Bashmakov

    (Center for Energy Efficiency-XXI (CENEf-XXI))

Abstract

In its 2023 Climate Doctrine, Russia officially committed to carbon neutrality before 2060. However, on the roadmap fork to climate neutrality Russia’s Low Carbon Strategy chose the 2F (Forest First) pathway with the dominance of the natural solutions in the LULUCF sector and with a moderate decline or even growth (industry and agriculture) in other sectors. This paper focuses on a discussion of the roadmap to carbon neutrality. The roadmapping approach relies on a system of interconnected models for setting the scale of low carbon technologies and practices deployment. The paper concludes that excessive reliance on the 2F pathway is unrealistic, and only the Forest Last family of scenarios, which focuses on substantial reduction of GHG emissions across all sectors, is able to bring Russia to carbon neutrality in 2060. The paper also presents indicators to assess emission reductions by major sectors and discusses the need to reinforce the five pillars to support this pathway: technologies; regulations and programmes; incentives and financing; institutes; and human capital. These five pillars are required to effectively address three basic models of decisions-making (satisficing, optimization, and system transformation).

Suggested Citation

  • Igor A. Bashmakov, 2024. "Russia on the pathways to carbon neutrality: forks on roadmaps," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(7), pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:29:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s11027-024-10164-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-024-10164-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George Safonov & Vladimir Potashnikov & Oleg Lugovoy & Mikhail Safonov & Alexandra Dorina & Andrei Bolotov, 2020. "The low carbon development options for Russia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1929-1945, October.
    2. Zhi Cao & Rupert J. Myers & Richard C. Lupton & Huabo Duan & Romain Sacchi & Nan Zhou & T. Reed Miller & Jonathan M. Cullen & Quansheng Ge & Gang Liu, 2020. "The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. World Bank & Ecofys & Vivid Economics & Thomas Michael Kerr, "undated". "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 25160, The World Bank Group.
    4. I. A. Bashmakov, 2020. "Russian low carbon development strategy," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 7.
    5. Laitner “Skip” John A. (Лайтнер, Джон) & Lugovoy, Oleg (Луговой, Олег) & Potashnikov, Vladimir (Поташников, Владимир), 2020. "Cost and Benefits of Deep Decarbonization in Russia," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 86-105, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Artur Pawłowski & Paweł Rydzewski, 2024. "Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Integrating Energy Strategies, Policy, and Public Perception in the Face of Climate Change—A Global Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-31, November.

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