An indicator tool for assessing local vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector

To propose specific adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector based on vulnerability to climate variability and climate change at the local level, we built a vulnerability index using an indicator tool at a fine spatial scale. This index was applied as a case study in the municipality of Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico, at the basic census area (BCA) level. We used a total of 37 variables organized into three groups with equal weighting: exposure (13), sensitivity (13), and adaptive capacity (11). From the 20 rural BCAs located in the study area, eight were categorized as having very low vulnerability; five had low vulnerability; two had medium vulnerability because of the lack of basic services (sewers, water, and electricity) and a high rural population density; three had high vulnerability due to a high frequency of days with temperatures below 5 °C and the lack of basic services; and two had very high vulnerability, characterized by a high percentage of production units (PUs) with losses due to climate factors, a high rural population density, and a high frequency of days with temperatures below 5 °C. Approximately 50 % of the municipal rural population lives in BCAs vulnerable to climate change. This methodology allowed us to identify the most susceptible agricultural areas at the local level and the variables that require more attention so that we can propose adaptation strategies and minimize vulnerability due to climate change.