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Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas

    (Universidad Autónoma Chapingo)

  • Ana Cecilia Conde-Álvarez

    (Ciudad Universitaria)

  • José Luís Pérez-Damian

    (Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, INECC)

  • Jorge López-Blanco

    (Environmental Change Consulting)

  • Marcos Gaytan-Dimas

    (Universidad Autónoma Chapingo)

  • Jesús David Gómez-Díaz

    (Universidad Autónoma Chapingo)

Abstract

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E + S − AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas & Ana Cecilia Conde-Álvarez & José Luís Pérez-Damian & Jorge López-Blanco & Marcos Gaytan-Dimas & Jesús David Gómez-Díaz, 2018. "Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 457-473, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2157-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2157-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudia Bouroncle & Pablo Imbach & Beatriz Rodríguez-Sánchez & Claudia Medellín & Armando Martinez-Valle & Peter Läderach, 2017. "Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 123-137, March.
    2. Alejandro Monterroso & Cecilia Conde & Carlos Gay & David Gómez & José López, 2014. "Two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 445-461, April.
    3. Camila I. Donatti & Celia A. Harvey & M. Ruth Martinez-Rodriguez & Raffaele Vignola & Carlos Manuel Rodriguez, 2017. "What information do policy makers need to develop climate adaptation plans for smallholder farmers? The case of Central America and Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 107-121, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonilla-Moheno, Martha & Aide, T. Mitchell, 2020. "Beyond deforestation: Land cover transitions in Mexico," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Matthew C. LaFevor, 2022. "Crop Species Production Diversity Enhances Revenue Stability in Low-Income Farm Regions of Mexico," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, November.

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