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Climate change scenarios to facilitate stakeholder engagement in agricultural adaptation

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  • N. Webb
  • C. Stokes

Abstract

To prepare agricultural systems for climate change, scientists need to be able to effectively engage with land managers and policy makers to explore potential solutions. An ongoing challenge in engagement is to distil the complexity of climate-change-management-change interactions in agro-ecological systems to identify responses that are most important for adaptation planning. This paper presents an approach for selecting climate change scenarios to provide a focal point for engaging with stakeholders to evaluate adaptation options and communicate assessment outcomes. We illustrate how scenarios selected with the approach can be used by evaluating climate change impacts and an adaptation option for livestock industries in the north-east Australian rangelands. Climate change impacts on forage production, animal liveweight gain and soil loss are found to track projected climate changes in four pasture communities; increasing by up to 50% and declining by up to 110% in response to doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ), 4°C warming, and +20% to −40% changes in mean annual rainfall. The effectiveness of reducing grazing pressure as an adaptation option shows a similar response; resulting in higher forage production (up to 40%), animal liveweight gains (up to 59%) and gross margins (up to 40%), and reduced soil erosion (down by 91%) per hectare relative to the baseline management. The results show that a few key scenarios may be selected to represent the range of global climate model (GCM) projections for use in assessing and communicating impacts and adaptation; simplifying the assessments and allowing limits to the effectiveness of adaptation options to be explored. The approach provides a framework for capturing and communicating trends in climate change impacts and the utility of options, which are required for successful engagement of stakeholders in finding viable adaption responses. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • N. Webb & C. Stokes, 2012. "Climate change scenarios to facilitate stakeholder engagement in agricultural adaptation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(8), pages 957-973, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:17:y:2012:i:8:p:957-973
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-011-9355-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lynn D. Rosentrater, 2010. "Representing and using scenarios for responding to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), pages 253-259, March.
    2. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
    3. E.E. Wheaton & D.C. Maciver, 1999. "A Framework and Key Questions for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 215-225, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hermine Mitter & Mathias Kirchner & Erwin Schmid & Martin Schönhart, 2013. "Knowledge integration of stakeholders into bio-physical process modelling for regional vulnerability assessment," Working Papers 542013, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development.
    2. Tendall, Danielle M. & Gaillard, Gérard, 2015. "Environmental consequences of adaptation to climate change in Swiss agriculture: An analysis at farm level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 40-51.
    3. repec:zbw:inwedp:542013 is not listed on IDEAS

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