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Two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector

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  • Alejandro Monterroso
  • Cecilia Conde
  • Carlos Gay
  • David Gómez
  • José López

Abstract

We applied two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in Mexico’s agricultural sector. The first one was a principal component analysis (PCA) that weighted each variable separately. For the second one, we integrated the variables in a linear array in which all variables were weighted equally, and then, we used the arithmetic sum of the sub-indices of exposure and sensitivity minus the adaptive capacity to obtain the vulnerability index. We discuss the similarities and differences between two methods with respect to municipal-level maps as the outputs. The application of the method for the agricultural sector in Mexico gave us the spatial distribution of the high- and very-high vulnerability categories, which we propose as a tool for policy. The methods agreed that the very-high vulnerability category is present in 39 municipalities. Also we found that 16 % of the total population in the country is located in high-exposure areas. In addition, 41 % lives in municipalities identified as highly-sensitive. In terms of adaptive capacity, 20 % of the population lives in 1273 municipalities with low-adaptive capacity. Finally, we discuss the need for information regarding vulnerability at the national level to guide policies aimed at reducing exposure and sensitivity and increasing adaptive capacity. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Monterroso & Cecilia Conde & Carlos Gay & David Gómez & José López, 2014. "Two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 445-461, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:19:y:2014:i:4:p:445-461
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9442-y
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    1. Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas & Ana Cecilia Conde-Álvarez & José Luís Pérez-Damian & Jorge López-Blanco & Marcos Gaytan-Dimas & Jesús David Gómez-Díaz, 2018. "Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 457-473, April.
    2. Chu, Andrea & Lin, Ying-Chen & Chiueh, Pei-Te, 2017. "Incorporating the effect of urbanization in measuring climate adaptive capacity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 28-38.
    3. Freudenreich, Hanna & Musshoff, Oliver, 2022. "Experience of losses and aversion to uncertainty - experimental evidence from farmers in Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Freudenreich, Hanna & Musshoff, Oliver & Wiercinski, Ben, 2017. "The Relationship between Farmers' Shock Experiences and their Uncertainty Preferences - Experimental Evidence from Mexico," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 256212, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    5. Yi Ge & Wen Dou & Ning Liu, 2017. "Planning Resilient and Sustainable Cities: Identifying and Targeting Social Vulnerability to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Mariya Aleksandrova & Animesh K. Gain & Carlo Giupponi, 2016. "Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm, Uzbekistan," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 1263-1287, December.
    7. Eva O. Arceo-Gómez & Danae Hernández-Cortés & Alejandro López-Feldman, 2020. "Droughts and rural households’ wellbeing: evidence from Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1197-1212, October.
    8. Ramiro Ahumada-Cervantes & Gilberto Velázquez-Angulo & Hugo B. Rodríguez-Gallegos & Edith Flores-Tavizón & Rubén Félix-Gastélum & Jaime Romero-González & Alfredo Granados-Olivas, 2017. "An indicator tool for assessing local vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 137-152, January.
    9. Elia A Machado & Samuel Ratick, 2018. "Implications of indicator aggregation methods for global change vulnerability reduction efforts," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1109-1141, October.
    10. Claudia Bouroncle & Pablo Imbach & Beatriz Rodríguez-Sánchez & Claudia Medellín & Armando Martinez-Valle & Peter Läderach, 2017. "Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 123-137, March.
    11. Rasoul Maleki & Mehdi Nooripoor & Hossein Azadi & Philippe Lebailly, 2018. "Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Households to Urmia Lake Drying (the Case of Shabestar Region)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Tugkan Tanir & Andre de Souza de Lima & Gustavo A. Coelho & Sukru Uzun & Felicio Cassalho & Celso M. Ferreira, 2021. "Assessing the spatiotemporal socioeconomic flood vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Potomac River Watershed," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 225-251, August.
    13. Ognjen Žurovec & Sabrija Čadro & Bishal Kumar Sitaula, 2017. "Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-18, July.

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