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Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico

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  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
  • Sirag, Abdalla
  • Soon, Siew-Voon

Abstract

This paper applies a nonlinear Autoregressive Distribute Lag to examine the exchange rate pass-through into consumer price inflation in Mexico. Overall, the evidence confirmed that ignoring the asymmetric (sign) effect of exchange rate movements on inflation may lead to incorrect inferences and policy conclusions. Exchange rate fluctuation is transferred to prices level more during currency depreciation than appreciation. We compare the macroeconomic performances between pre- and post-inflation targeting, and our findings reaffirmed that the pass-through has weakened significantly after launching inflation targeting in 2001. This result implies that low inflation in the sample period examined is good for Mexico because exchange rate pass-through declines after 2001. Consumer prices have become less responsive to exchange rate movements. We further observe a revival (strengthening) of oil price pass-through to domestic inflation in the post- inflation targeting period.

Suggested Citation

  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Sirag, Abdalla & Soon, Siew-Voon, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-259.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:247-259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.034
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    Cited by:

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    3. Diby François Kassi & Dilesha Nawadali Rathnayake & Akadje Jean Roland Edjoukou & Yobouet Thierry Gnangoin & Pierre Axel Louembe & Ning Ding & Gang Sun, 2019. "Asymmetry in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: New Perspective from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, January.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
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    7. Eduardo Saucedo & Jorge Gonzalez, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico: A Study of the Main Border and Non-Border Cities," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-24, Abril - J.
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    11. Sengupta, Darpajit & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2020. "Exchange Rate Pass-through: An exploration on India’s automobile sector," MPRA Paper 102533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sheng Xu & Hailun Zhang & Said Atri, 2017. "A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China, Eurozone and the U.S.: A Vector Error Correction Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 51-65, August.
    13. Eduardo Saucedo & Jorge Gonzalez, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico: A Study of the Main Border and Non-Border Cities," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-24, Abril - J.
    14. Ayman Mnasri & Zouhair Mrabet & Mouyad Alsamara, 2023. "A new quadratic asymmetric error correction model: does size matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 33-64, July.
    15. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Dombrecht, Michel, 2018. "Asymmetric import cost pass-through in GCC countries: Evidence from nonlinear panel analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 432-440.
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Usman, Ojonugwa & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    17. Kassi, Diby François & Sun, Gang & Ding, Ning & Rathnayake, Dilesha Nawadali & Assamoi, Guy Roland, 2019. "Asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: Evidence from emerging and developing Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-372.
    18. Safet Kurtović & Nehat Maxhuni & Blerim Halili & Sead Talović, 2021. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass‐through into import prices of Slovenia's manufacturing sector," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4609-4633, July.
    19. Nabila Khurshid & Chinyere Emmanuel Egbe & Asma Fiaz & Amna Sheraz, 2023. "Globalization and Economic Stability: An Insight from the Rocket and Feather Hypothesis in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-19, January.
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    21. Mutiu A. Oyinlola & Tirimisyu F. Oloko, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock market performance in Nigeria: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Working Papers 059, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    22. Meryem Türel & Ayhan Orhan, 2022. "Asymmetries in Exchange Rate Pass-through in Turkey: A Threshold VAR Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(3-4), pages 276-295.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Inflation; Asymmetry ARDL; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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