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Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation

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Abstract

We estimate the oil price pass-through into consumer prices both in the US and in the euro area. In particular, we disentangle the specific effect that an oil price change might have on each disaggregate price, from the effect on all prices that an oil price change might have since it affects the whole economy. To do so, we first estimate a Dynamic Factor Model on a panel of disaggregate price indicators, and then we use VAR techniques to estimate the pass-through. Our results show that the oil price passes through core inflation only via its effect on the whole economy. This pass-through is estimated to be small, but statistically different from zero and long lasting.

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  • Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-85
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.085
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Core inflation; Disaggregate consumer prices; Dynamic factor model; Oil price; Pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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