Shifting waves of shipping: a review on global shipping projections and methodologies

As climate change continues to pose a significant threat to our planet, international maritime shipping plays a crucial role in mitigation efforts. Recognizing the urgency, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has revised its targets, now aiming for full decarbonization by 2050. However, there is no established pathway to get to the target. To achieve this, there is a need for models depicting possible futures of the maritime sector, and finding feasible pathways. This research aims to find the most suitable way to develop models to find pathways toward decarbonization targets. This involves evaluating existing ranges and scenarios to understand current estimations and their underlying assumptions and assessing the most suitable modeling methods based on defined criteria. Considering the context, the most suitable models for this objective should perform on a global scale. They should include dynamics between shipping demand & supply as well as the derived fuel demand and supply and emissions; integrate the sector with other parts of the economy; incorporate various technologies into the framework; and span multiple scenarios. The study has two main parts. First, existing scenarios on the future of maritime shipping are analyzed to identify current estimations and assumptions impacting these estimations. Second, various modeling frameworks are assessed against the defined criteria to identify the most suitable modeling structure for achieving the decarbonization targets. Many projections do not meet the IMO’s updated targets, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift in setting targets and finding feasible pathways rather than focusing solely on individual measures. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been identified as suitable for such projections and policy analysis, although international shipping is often underrepresented in current models. Future research should combine the insights of sectoral models in integrated frameworks such as IAMs to develop integrated strategies to investigate pathways to achieve zero-emission targets. The ultimate goal is to understand how to effectively reduce the sector’s emissions and achieve more environmentally friendly international maritime shipping.