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Modelling production-consumption flows of goods in Europe: the trade model within Transtools3

Author

Listed:
  • Gerard de Jong

    (University of Leeds
    Significance)

  • Reto Tanner

    (University of Leeds
    Delft University of Technology)

  • Jeppe Rich

    (DTU Technical University of Denmark)

  • Mikkel Thorhauge

    (DTU Technical University of Denmark)

  • Otto Anker Nielsen

    (DTU Technical University of Denmark)

  • John Bates

    (John Bates Services)

Abstract

The paper presents a new model for trade flows in Europe that is integrated with a logistics model for transport chain choice through Logsum variables. Logsums measures accessibility across an entire multi-modal logistical chain, and are calculated from a logistics model that has been estimated on disaggregated micro data and then used as an input variable in the trade model. Using Logsums in a trade model is new in applied large-scale freight models, where previous models have simply relied on the distance (e.g. crow-fly) between zones. This linkage of accessibility to the trade model makes it possible to evaluate how changes in policies on transport costs and changes in multi-modal networks will influence trade patterns. As an example the paper presents outcomes for a European-wide truck tolling scenario, which showcases to which extent trade is influenced by such a policy. The paper discusses how such a complex model can be estimated and considers the choice of mathematical formulation and the link between the trade model and logistics model. In the outcomes for the tolling scenario we decompose the total effects into effects from the trade model and effects from the logistics model.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard de Jong & Reto Tanner & Jeppe Rich & Mikkel Thorhauge & Otto Anker Nielsen & John Bates, 2017. "Modelling production-consumption flows of goods in Europe: the trade model within Transtools3," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:josatr:v:2:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s41072-017-0023-9
    DOI: 10.1186/s41072-017-0023-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jasper Verschuur & Raghav Pant & Elco Koks & Jim Hall, 2022. "A systemic risk framework to improve the resilience of port and supply-chain networks to natural hazards," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(3), pages 489-506, September.
    2. Avetisyan, Misak & Hertel, Thomas, 2021. "Impacts of trade facilitation on modal choice and international trade flows," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    3. Lankhuizen, Maureen & Boonstra, Harm Jan & de Blois, Chris, 2020. "Unpacking freight – Identifying conditions driving regional freight transport in statistics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 415-435.
    4. T. A. Santos & G. Lopes Santos & P. Martins & C. Guedes Soares, 2022. "A methodology for short-sea-shipping service design within intermodal transport chains," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(1), pages 138-167, March.
    5. Larsen, Rune & Rich, Jeppe & Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær, 2019. "Hub-based truck platooning: Potentials and profitability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 249-264.
    6. Keya, Nowreen & Anowar, Sabreena & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2021. "A joint framework for modeling freight mode and destination choice: Application to the US commodity flow survey data," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Jensen, Anders Fjendbo & Thorhauge, Mikkel & de Jong, Gerard & Rich, Jeppe & Dekker, Thijs & Johnson, Daniel & Cabral, Manuel Ojeda & Bates, John & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2019. "A disaggregate freight transport chain choice model for Europe," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-62.

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