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A Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Analysis of Current and Future Migration from Eastern Europe into West Germany

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  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Oser, Ursula
  • Winker, Peter

Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of current and future immigration flows on major macroeconomic variables of the West German economy. The analysis is based on a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for the West German economy. This model is extended until 1995 and used for several simulation experiments. Special attention is given to the notion that the effects of immigration are regime-specific, i.e., they depend on the type of disequilibrium prevailing on the goods and labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz, Wolfgang & Oser, Ursula & Winker, Peter, 1994. "A Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Analysis of Current and Future Migration from Eastern Europe into West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 217-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:7:y:1994:i:2:p:217-34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang & Konig, Heinz, 1990. "A disequilibrium approach to unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 413-422, May.
    3. Schioppa,Fiorella Padoa & La Sapienza and the Libra Universita Internazionale Degli Studi Sociale, (ed.), 1991. "Mismatch and Labour Mobility," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521402439, October.
    4. Wolfgang FRANZ & Gustav HEIDBRINK, 1992. "The Importance of Rationing in International Trade : An Econometric Analysis for Germany," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1992036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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    1. Schellhorn, Martin & Winker, Peter, 1994. "Stochastic simulations of a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for West Germany," Discussion Papers, Series II 235, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    2. Oser, Ursula, 1995. "Remittances of guest workers to their home countries: An econometric analysis," Discussion Papers 25, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    3. Michael Beenstock & Jeffrey Fisher, 1997. "The macroeconomic effects of immigration: Israel in the 1990s," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(2), pages 330-358, June.
    4. Franz, Wolfgang & Göggelmann, Klaus & Winker, Peter, 1996. "Ein makroökonometrisches Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft 1960 bis 1994: Konzeption, Ergebnisse und Erfahrungen," Discussion Papers, Series II 327, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    5. Velling, Johannes, 1995. "Die Arbeitserlaubnis als Instrument der Arbeitsmarktpolitik zur Steuerung internationaler Zuwanderung auf den Arbeitsmarkt," ZEW Discussion Papers 95-16, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Göggelmann, Klaus & Franz, Wolfgang & Winker, Peter, 1997. "Einige Wirkungen von steuerlichen Umfinanzierungsmaßnahmen in einem makroökonometrischen Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die westdeutsche Volkswirtschaft," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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