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Ein makroökonometrisches Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft 1960 bis 1994: Konzeption, Ergebnisse und Erfahrungen

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  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Göggelmann, Klaus
  • Winker, Peter

Abstract

Gegenstand dieses Beitrags ist die aktuelle und aufgrund der Integration des Staatssektors und des Kreditmarktes nun vollständige Version des Konstanzer aggregierten Ungleichgewichtsmodells für die westdeutsche Volkswirtschaft für den Zeitraum von 1960 bis 1994. Nach einem kurzen Überblick über Konzeption und Aufbau des Modells werden die wichtigsten Gleichungen vorgestellt und die Schätzergebnisse diskutiert. Mit Hilfe exemplarischer Simulationen werden die Unterschiede des Modells zu anderen makroökonometrischen Modellen herausgearbeitet. So wird gezeigt, daß ein und dieselbe wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahme je nach herrschendem Regime unterschiedliche Auswirkungen beispielsweise auf die Beschäftigungsentwicklung haben kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz, Wolfgang & Göggelmann, Klaus & Winker, Peter, 1996. "Ein makroökonometrisches Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft 1960 bis 1994: Konzeption, Ergebnisse und Erfahrungen," Discussion Papers, Series II 327, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz, Wolfgang & Oser, Ursula & Winker, Peter, 1994. "A Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Analysis of Current and Future Migration from Eastern Europe into West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 217-234.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang & Konig, Heinz, 1990. "A disequilibrium approach to unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 413-422, May.
    3. Franz, Wolfgang & Heidbrink, Gustav W. & Smolny, Werner, 1993. "The impact of German unification on West Germany's goods and labor market: A macroeconometric disequilibrium model in action," Discussion Papers 7, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    4. Franz, Wolfgang & Oser, Ursula & Winker, Peter, 1993. "Migratory movements in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model for West Germany," Discussion Papers, Series II 202, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    5. Smolny, Werner, 1994. "Monopolistic price setting and supply rigidities in a disequilibrium framework," Discussion Papers 12, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    6. Wolfgang FRANZ & Gustav HEIDBRINK, 1992. "The Importance of Rationing in International Trade : An Econometric Analysis for Germany," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1992036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    7. Smolny, Werner, 1992. "Dynamic factor demand in a rationing model," Discussion Papers, Series II 175, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    8. Schellhorn, Martin & Winker, Peter, 1994. "Stochastic simulations of a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for West Germany," Discussion Papers, Series II 235, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
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    1. Buscher, Herbert S. & Buslei, Hermann & Goggelmann, Klaus & Koschel, Henrike & Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Steiner, Viktor & Winker, Peter, 2001. "Empirical macro models under test. A comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 455-474, August.
    2. Buscher, Herbert S. & Buslei, Hermann & Göggelmann, Klaus & Koschel, Henrike & Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Steiner, Viktor & Winker, Peter, 2000. "Empirical Macromodels Under Test," Discussion Papers 575, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.

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