The Impact of Immigration Attitudes on Voting Preferences: Evidence from the European Social Survey

This paper uses data from nine rounds of the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2018 to examine the relationship between individual attitudes toward immigration and party preferences among voters across countries. We find that individuals with more favorable attitudes toward the effect of immigrants on their country’s economy and culture have a higher likelihood of voting for parties that are further left on the political spectrum, while those with more unfavorable attitudes prefer parties further to the right. Our results also show that voters are more strongly influenced by their perceptions of the cultural contributions of immigrants than by their views of the economic contributions of immigrants and this effect is becoming stronger over time. Interestingly, while the direction of influence is clear, extreme views on immigration do not appear to translate into votes for parties on the extremes of the political spectrum. Overall, our results provide useful insights in a global climate of increased focus on immigration policy.