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Structural Data on Immigration or Immigration Perceptions? What Accounts for the Electoral Success of the Radical Right in Europe?

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  • Daniel Stockemer

Abstract

Targeting immigrants as a threat to employment, security and cultural cohesion, the radical right has averaged 10 percent of the vote in elections. What drives this vote? Are voters affected by the numbers of foreign‐born individuals in a geographical region, by negative perceptions about immigrants, or both? In this article, I entertain the possibility that it is not the number of foreigners but citizens’ perceptions about immigrants that explain individuals’ tendencies to vote for the radical right. To test this stipulation, I combine European Social Survey (ESS) data on individual perceptions of immigrants for more than 25,000 individuals with macro‐level data on the actual percentage of foreign‐born citizens across 200 European regions. Using a bivariate and multivariate framework, I highlight that it is only the individual perceptions of immigration indicator, and not the number of foreign‐born citizens, that is positively related to higher support for radical right‐wing parties.

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  • Daniel Stockemer, 2016. "Structural Data on Immigration or Immigration Perceptions? What Accounts for the Electoral Success of the Radical Right in Europe?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 999-1016, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:54:y:2016:i:4:p:999-1016
    DOI: 10.1111/jcms.12341
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cengiz Erisen & Sofia Vasilopoulou, 2022. "The affective model of far‐right vote in Europe: Anger, political trust, and immigration," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(3), pages 635-648, May.
    2. Francesco Pagliacci & Luca Bonacini, 2022. "Explaining The Anti‐Immigrant Sentiment Through a Spatial Analysis: A Study of The 2019 European Elections in Italy," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 113(4), pages 365-381, September.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jan & Hulényi, Martin & Tunalı, Çiğdem Börke, 2019. "Can money buy EU love?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Brandon Malloy & Zeynep Ozkok & Jonathan Rosborough, 2022. "The Impact of Immigration Attitudes on Voting Preferences: Evidence from the European Social Survey," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1825-1853, December.
    5. Wouter van der Brug & Eelco Harteveld, 2021. "The conditional effects of the refugee crisis on immigration attitudes and nationalism," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(2), pages 227-247, June.
    6. Eddy SF Yeung, 2021. "Does immigration boost public Euroscepticism in European Union member states?," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(4), pages 631-654, December.
    7. Jäger, Julian, 2023. "Immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 76, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.

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