Can Migrants’ Emigration Intentions Predict Their Actual Behaviors? Evidence from a Swiss Survey

In this paper, we use original linked data to better understand the relationship between remigration intentions and actual behaviors and, more specifically, to verify whether remigration intentions can predict migrants’ actual behaviors. To do so, we compare self-declared remigration intentions with actual departures during the 2 years following a survey. Then, we analyze to what extent the factors associated with both dimensions are similar. The results show that 96% of migrants who wanted to stay in Switzerland actually stayed and that 71% of those who wanted to leave the country actually left. Overall, intentions were a good predictor of behaviors, and the factors associated with remigration intentions and actual behaviors were almost the same. However, intentions reflected migrants’ personal feelings at the time of the survey and sometimes reflected their potential to remain in Switzerland from a legal point of view. Behaviors were more rational than intentions in that migrants’ reflections on their actual situations were more profound, and their choices to stay in Switzerland or to leave were thus influenced by rational elements such as their labor market situations or family constraints.