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Expectation traps in a new Keynesian open economy model

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  • David Arseneau

Abstract

This paper illustrates that the introduction of a money demand distortion into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Open Economy model generates multiple discretionary equilibria. These equilibria arise in the form of expectations traps whereby the monetary authority is trapped into validating expectations of the private sector because failing to do so is costly. One implication of the model is that provided initial inflation expectations are sufficiently anchored the global Friedman rule emerges as an equilibrium under discretion. It is therefore a time-consistent outcome and hence fully sustainable even in absence of a commitment device or reputational considerations.
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  • David Arseneau, 2012. "Expectation traps in a new Keynesian open economy model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 81-112, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:81-112
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-010-0533-2
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    1. Zhixiong Zeng, 2013. "A theory of the non-neutrality of money with banking frictions and bank recapitalization," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 729-754, March.
    2. Evans, Richard W., 2012. "Is openness inflationary? Policy commitment and imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1095-1110.
    3. Cooke, Dudley, 2006. "Openness and Inflation," Economics Discussion Papers 8907, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Dudley Cooke, 2010. "Openness and Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 267-287, March.
    5. Thang Ngoc Doan & Junichi Fujimoto, 2022. "Time Consistency and Counterproductive Monetary Policy Cooperation in a Two‐Country New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1491-1523, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discretionary monetary policy; Friedman rule; Time consistency problem; Sustainable policy; E58; E61; F41; F42;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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