IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jknowl/v15y2024i2d10.1007_s13132-023-01422-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Modeling of the Relationship Between Major Economic Indicators in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Daba Ketema Huriso

    (Bule Hora University)

  • Belay Belete Anjullo

    (Arba Minch University)

  • Yilikal Tesfaye Haile

    (Arba Minch University)

  • Derbachew Asfaw Teni

    (Addis Ababa University)

Abstract

We model the relationship between major economic indicators in Ethiopia. We obtained 28 years of data from the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) for the period between 1991 and 2018, these data have been transformed into quarterly data. It was seen that there are upward trend and volatility clustering in the data. Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) models were employed for volatility modelling with the specific interest in identifying the trend and the impact of macroeconomic variables on economic growth. Results from Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC (1,1))-GARCH model showed the sum of ARCH and GARCH effect was 0.672. This implied volatility is neither permanent nor explosive, that is a shock to volatility in one period will not lead to greater volatility in the next period. It was also found that the estimated association parameter between consumer price index which is proxy for inflation and real gross domestic product was -0.557, this shows negative association between inflation and real gross domestic product. Furthermore; volatility on exchange rate and money supply has a significant positive association with volatility on real gross domestic product and inflation. NBE should be cautious in controlling the money supply to control the problem of inflation, since the increase in money supply increases inflation, and inflation affects economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Daba Ketema Huriso & Belay Belete Anjullo & Yilikal Tesfaye Haile & Derbachew Asfaw Teni, 2024. "Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Modeling of the Relationship Between Major Economic Indicators in Ethiopia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 7127-7142, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:15:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s13132-023-01422-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s13132-023-01422-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13132-023-01422-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13132-023-01422-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Dipendra Sinha, 2007. "Effects of Volatility of Exports in the Philippines and Thailand," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 78-83, September.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    5. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    6. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nakatani, Tomoaki & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2008. "Positivity constraints on the conditional variances in the family of conditional correlation GARCH models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 88-95, June.
    2. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
    3. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
    4. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    5. Otranto, Edoardo, 2010. "Identifying financial time series with similar dynamic conditional correlation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Emerson Fernandes Marcal & Pedro Valls Pereira & Diogenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Wilson Toshiro Nakamura, 2011. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2365-2379.
    7. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2008. "Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    8. Michael McAleer, 2019. "What They Did Not Tell You about Algebraic (Non-) Existence, Mathematical (IR-)Regularity, and (Non-) Asymptotic Properties of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-9, April.
    9. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
    10. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.
    11. Xiaoning Kang & Xinwei Deng & Kam‐Wah Tsui & Mohsen Pourahmadi, 2020. "On variable ordination of modified Cholesky decomposition for estimating time‐varying covariance matrices," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(3), pages 616-641, December.
    12. de Oliveira, Felipe A. & Maia, Sinézio F. & de Jesus, Diego P. & Besarria, Cássio da N., 2018. "Which information matters to market risk spreading in Brazil? Volatility transmission modelling using MGARCH-BEKK, DCC, t-Copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-100.
    13. Marçal, Emerson F. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2008. "Testando A Hipótese De Contágio A Partir De Modelos Multivariados De Volatilidade [Testing the contagion hypotheses using multivariate volatility models]," MPRA Paper 10356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2014. "A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 22-44.
    15. Carlo Drago & Andrea Scozzari, 2022. "Evaluating conditional covariance estimates via a new targeting approach and a networks-based analysis," Papers 2202.02197, arXiv.org.
    16. Cristina Amado & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2018. "Models with Multiplicative Decomposition of Conditional Variances and Correlations," CREATES Research Papers 2018-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Country Risk Ratings," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-203, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    18. Manabu Asai & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Laurent Pauwels, 2021. "Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties for Multivariate Rotated GARCH Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, May.
    19. Asai, M. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Pauwels, L., 2018. "Asymptotic Theory for Rotated Multivariate GARCH Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    20. R. Khalfaoui & M. Boutahar, 2012. "Portfolio Risk Evaluation: An Approach Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlations Models and Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00793068, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:15:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s13132-023-01422-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.