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Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan

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  • Khan, Abdul Aleem
  • Ahmed, Qazi Masood
  • Hyder, Kalim

Abstract

The expansionary economic policies of the government and of the central bank (State Bank of Pakistan – SBP), which on one side resulted in impressive economic performance, stimulated a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the other. This initiated a debate on the determinants of the recent inflation. Some blamed fiscal policy or monetary policy, while others blamed imported inflation, administered prices or mismanagement and loose control of the government. This study, adopting an econometric framework, focuses on the identification of the main determinants of recent inflation trends. Using data from the 1972-73 to 2005-06 period, applying ordinary least square method and verifying results through Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM and Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, it finds that the most important determinants of inflation in 2005-06 were adaptive expectations, private sector credit and rising import prices. Whereas, the fiscal policy’s contribution to inflation was minimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16254
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
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    5. Abdul Jalil & Hafsa Hina (ed.), 2024. "Monetary Policy: Crafting a Path for Pakistans Economic Stability," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2024:03.
    6. Muhammad Azam & Salim Rashid, 2015. "The monetarist hypothesis of inflation in Pakistan – a critique," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 559-576, October.
    7. Dejene Mamo Bekana, 2016. "What Causes Inflation in a Post Communist Economy? Evidence from Ethiopia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 3-46, September.
    8. Nazima Ellahi, 2017. "The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(64), pages 2-12, June.
    9. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    10. Kiran Ijaz & Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir A. Fida, 2014. "Terms-of-Trade Volatility and Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 111-132, Jan-June.
    11. Phouthanouphet Saysombath, 2014. "An Examination of the Causal Relationship between Budget Deficit and Inflation: a Case Study of Lao PDR," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 43-49.
    12. Muhammad AZAM KHAN* & Saleem KHAN*, 2018. "INFLATION AND THE ECONOMIC GROWTH: Evidence from Five Asian Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 28(2), pages 235-252.
    13. Daba Ketema Huriso & Belay Belete Anjullo & Yilikal Tesfaye Haile & Derbachew Asfaw Teni, 2024. "Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Modeling of the Relationship Between Major Economic Indicators in Ethiopia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 7127-7142, June.
    14. Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.
    15. Ruzima, Martin & Veerachamy, P, 2015. "A Study on Determinants of Inflation in Rwanda from 1970-2013," MPRA Paper 73222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Adnan Haider & Qazi Masood Ahmed & Zohaib Jawed, 2014. "Determinants of Energy Inflation in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 491-504.
    17. Bilal Raza & Khurram S Mughal, 2022. "Fiscal Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 108, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    18. Hafiz Saqib Mehmood Najmi & Furrukh Bashir & Farida Naeem, 2014. "Responsiveness Of Electricity Generation Towards Price Level: An Empirical Investigation From Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 2(1), pages 18-27, June.
    19. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    20. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CALIN & Oana Cristina POPOVICI, 2016. "Do Remittances Hurt Domestic Prices? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle–Income Groups," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 95-114, December.
    21. Rabia Saghir & Saiqa Saddiqa Qureshi & Hina Hayat, 2022. "Internationalization Of Relationship Between Inflation And Money Supply Policies: An Empirical Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 234-239.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; monetary Policy; Inflation; Determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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