IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecstr/v7y2018i1d10.1186_s40008-018-0118-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints

Author

Listed:
  • Kirsten Svenja Wiebe

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Eivind Lekve Bjelle

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Johannes Többen

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Richard Wood

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

After the publication of various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases over the past years and related environmental and socio-economic footprint analyses, the interest in these global value chain analyses is ever increasing. In order to provide forward-looking analysis of policy impacts, it is necessary to take MRIO data one step further, projecting them into the future. This paper introduces a simple approach to implementing existing climate change scenarios, such as the IEA energy technology perspective scenarios, in MRIO models. Rather than forecasting the world economy, the methodology is based on a mix of econometric estimations on the demand side and using specific information regarding technology development and its classical implementation in input–output tables. We apply this “what if” scenario approach to the most recent version of the MRIO system EXIOBASE. We compare the development of consumption- and production-based CO2 emissions up to 2030. As an additional example, we show that the energy dependency of Europe is reduced in the 2-degree scenario compared to the 6-degree scenario, while the material dependency is higher. We discuss the major shortcoming of the model, the assumption of constant shares if no better information is available, and suggest that this actually is an advantage for deducing policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsten Svenja Wiebe & Eivind Lekve Bjelle & Johannes Többen & Richard Wood, 2018. "Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:7:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-018-0118-y
    DOI: 10.1186/s40008-018-0118-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40008-018-0118-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40008-018-0118-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J-F Mercure & H. Pollitt & N. R. Edwards & P. B. Holden & U. Chewpreecha & P. Salas & A. Lam & F. Knobloch & J. Vinuales, 2017. "Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE," Papers 1707.04870, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    2. Sergio J. Rey, 2000. "articles: Integrated regional econometric+input-output modeling: Issues and opportunities," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 79(3), pages 271-292.
    3. Arnold Tukker & Richard Wood & Stefan Giljum, 2018. "Relevance of Global Multi Regional Input Output Databases for Global Environmental Policy: Experiences with EXIOBASE 3," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(3), pages 482-484, June.
    4. Faye Duchin & Stephen H. Levine, 2016. "Combining Multiregional Input-Output Analysis with a World Trade Model for Evaluating Scenarios for Sustainable Use of Global Resources, Part II: Implementation," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(4), pages 783-791, August.
    5. Scrieciu, S. Şerban & Barker, Terry & Ackerman, Frank, 2013. "Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 155-165.
    6. Kirsten S. Wiebe, 2016. "The impact of renewable energy diffusion on European consumption-based emissions," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 133-150, June.
    7. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, November.
    8. Moana Simas & Richard Wood & Edgar Hertwich, 2015. "Labor Embodied in Trade," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(3), pages 343-356, June.
    9. Faye Duchin & Stephen H. Levine & Anders Hammer Strømman, 2016. "Combining Multiregional Input-Output Analysis with a World Trade Model for Evaluating Scenarios for Sustainable Use of Global Resources, Part I: Conceptual Framework," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(4), pages 775-782, August.
    10. J. F. Mercure & H. Pollitt & U. Chewpreecha & P. Salas & A. Foley & P. B. Holden & N. R. Edwards, 2013. "Complexity, economic science and possible economic benefits of climate change mitigation policy," Papers 1310.4403, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
    11. Arjan De Koning & Gjalt Huppes & Sebastiaan Deetman & Arnold Tukker, 2016. "Scenarios for a 2 °C world: a trade-linked input--output model with high sector detail," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 301-317, April.
    12. Faye Duchin, 2005. "A world trade model based on comparative advantage with m regions, n goods, and k factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 141-162.
    13. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, November.
    14. Terry Barker and S. Serban Scrieciu, 2010. "Modeling Low Climate Stabilization with E3MG: Towards a 'New Economics' Approach to Simulating Energy-Environment-Economy System Dynamics," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    15. Diana Ivanova & Konstantin Stadler & Kjartan Steen-Olsen & Richard Wood & Gibran Vita & Arnold Tukker & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2016. "Environmental Impact Assessment of Household Consumption," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(3), pages 526-536, June.
    16. Christian Lutz & Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2010. "The global multisector/multicountry 3-E model GINFORS. A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO 2 emissions," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 25-45.
    17. Stefan Giljum & Hanspeter Wieland & Stephan Lutter & Martin Bruckner & Richard Wood & Arnold Tukker & Konstantin Stadler, 2016. "Identifying priority areas for European resource policies: a MRIO-based material footprint assessment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, December.
    18. Glenn A. Aguilar-Hernandez & Carlos Pablo Sigüenza-Sanchez & Franco Donati & João F. D. Rodrigues & Arnold Tukker, 2018. "Assessing circularity interventions: a review of EEIOA-based studies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    19. Anders Hammer Strømman & Faye Duchin, 2006. "A world trade model with bilateral trade based on comparative advantage," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 281-297.
    20. Niklas Höhne & Takeshi Kuramochi & Carsten Warnecke & Frauke Röser & Hanna Fekete & Markus Hagemann & Thomas Day & Ritika Tewari & Marie Kurdziel & Sebastian Sterl & Sofia Gonzales, 2017. "The Paris Agreement: resolving the inconsistency between global goals and national contributions," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 16-32, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Černý, Martin & Bruckner, Martin & Weinzettel, Jan & Wiebe, Kirsten & Kimmich, Christian & Kerschner, Christian & Hubacek, Klaus, 2024. "Global employment and skill level requirements for ‘Post-Carbon Europe’," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Yuquan W. Zhang & Yong Geng & Bin Zhang & Shaohua Yang & David V. Izikowitz & Haitao Yin & Fei Wu & Haishan Yu & Huiwen Liu & Weiduo Zhou, 2023. "Examining industrial air pollution embodied in trade: implications of a hypothetical China-UK FTA," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13253-13279, November.
    3. Wimmer, Lorenz & Kluge, Jan & Zenz, Hannes & Kimmich, Christian, 2023. "Predicting structural changes of the energy sector in an input–output framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. Guillermo MONTT & Kirsten S. WIEBE & Marek HARSDORFF & Moana SIMAS & Antoine BONNET & Richard WOOD, 2018. "Does climate action destroy jobs? An assessment of the employment implications of the 2‐degree goal," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(4), pages 519-556, December.
    5. Bjelle, Eivind Lekve & Wiebe, Kirsten S. & Többen, Johannes & Tisserant, Alexandre & Ivanova, Diana & Vita, Gibran & Wood, Richard, 2021. "Future changes in consumption: The income effect on greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Alexandra Leclerc & Etienne Berthet & Konstantin Stadler & Richard Wood & Alexis Laurent, 2023. "Toward global and national toxicity footprints," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(6), pages 1521-1537, December.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335902 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Glenn A. Aguilar‐Hernandez & Sebastiaan Deetman & Stefano Merciai & João F. D. Rodrigues & Arnold Tukker, 2021. "Global distribution of material inflows to in‐use stocks in 2011 and its implications for a circularity transition," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1447-1461, December.
    9. Livia Cabernard & Stephan Pfister & Christopher Oberschelp & Stefanie Hellweg, 2022. "Growing environmental footprint of plastics driven by coal combustion," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 139-148, February.
    10. Mongi Lassoued, 2021. "Energy Consumption, Governance Quality and Sustainable Development Nexus: Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 388-394.
    11. Porcelli, Roberto & Gibon, Thomas & Marazza, Diego & Righi, Serena & Rugani, Benedetto, 2023. "Prospective environmental impact assessment and simulation applied to an emerging biowaste-based energy technology in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    12. Johannes Reinhard Többen & Martin Distelkamp & Britta Stöver & Saskia Reuschel & Lara Ahmann & Christian Lutz, 2022. "Global Land Use Impacts of Bioeconomy: An Econometric Input–Output Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Többen, Johannes & Banning, Maximilian & Hembach-Stunden, Katharina & Stöver, Britta & Ulrich, Philip & Schwab, Thomas, 2023. "Energising EU Cohesion: Powering up lagging regions in the renewable energy transition," MPRA Paper 119374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Duarte, Rosa & Miranda-Buetas, Sara & Sarasa, Cristina, 2021. "Household consumption patterns and income inequality in EU countries: Scenario analysis for a fair transition towards low-carbon economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Carine Lausselet & Linda Ager‐Wick Ellingsen & Anders Hammer Strømman & Helge Brattebø, 2020. "A life‐cycle assessment model for zero emission neighborhoods," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(3), pages 500-516, June.
    16. Carine Lausselet & Johana Paola Forero Urrego & Eirik Resch & Helge Brattebø, 2021. "Temporal analysis of the material flows and embodied greenhouse gas emissions of a neighborhood building stock," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 419-434, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rocco, Matteo V. & Golinucci, Nicolò & Ronco, Stefano M. & Colombo, Emanuela, 2020. "Fighting carbon leakage through consumption-based carbon emissions policies: Empirical analysis based on the World Trade Model with Bilateral Trades," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    2. Alexandre Tisserant & Stefan Pauliuk, 2016. "Matching global cobalt demand under different scenarios for co-production and mining attractiveness," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Alexandre Tisserant & Stefan Pauliuk, 2016. "Matching global cobalt demand under different scenarios for co-production and mining attractiveness," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Mercure, J.-F. & Pollitt, H. & Chewpreecha, U. & Salas, P. & Foley, A.M. & Holden, P.B. & Edwards, N.R., 2014. "The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 686-700.
    5. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2013. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 469-483.
    6. Knobloch, Florian & Pollitt, Hector & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Lewney, Richard & Huijbregts, Mark A.J. & Mercure, Jean-Francois, 2021. "FTT:Heat — A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Sam Fankhauser & Frank Jotzo, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," CCEP Working Papers 1705, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Hector Pollitt & Karsten Neuhoff & Xinru Lin, 2020. "The impact of implementing a consumption charge on carbon-intensive materials in Europe," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(S1), pages 74-89, April.
    9. Mercure, Jean-François, 2012. "FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 799-811.
    10. Bjelle, Eivind Lekve & Wiebe, Kirsten S. & Többen, Johannes & Tisserant, Alexandre & Ivanova, Diana & Vita, Gibran & Wood, Richard, 2021. "Future changes in consumption: The income effect on greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. Paim, Maria-Augusta & Dalmarco, Arthur R. & Yang, Chung-Han & Salas, Pablo & Lindner, Sören & Mercure, Jean-Francois & de Andrade Guerra, José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório & Derani, Cristiane & Bruce , 2019. "Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 393-401.
    12. Distefano, Tiziano & Kelly, Scott, 2017. "Are we in deep water? Water scarcity and its limits to economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 130-147.
    13. Thomas Wiedmann, 2017. "An input–output virtual laboratory in practice – survey of uptake, usage and applications of the first operational IELab," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 296-312, April.
    14. Tilmann Rave, 2013. "Innovationsindikatoren zum globalen Klimaschutz – FuE-Ausgaben und Patente," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(15), pages 34-41, August.
    15. Daniel Moran & Richard Wood, 2014. "Convergence Between The Eora, Wiod, Exiobase, And Openeu'S Consumption-Based Carbon Accounts," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 245-261, September.
    16. Lykke E. Andersen & Luis Carlos Jemio, 2016. "Decentralization and poverty reduction in Bolivia: Challenges and opportunities," Development Research Working Paper Series 01/2016, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    17. Inglesi-Lotz, Roula, 2017. "Social rate of return to R&D on various energy technologies: Where should we invest more? A study of G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 521-525.
    18. Tom Mikunda & Tom Kober & Heleen de Coninck & Morgan Bazilian & Hilke R�sler & Bob van der Zwaan, 2014. "Designing policy for deployment of CCS in industry," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 665-676, September.
    19. Jun Nakatani & Tamon Maruyama & Kosuke Fukuchi & Yuichi Moriguchi, 2015. "A Practical Approach to Screening Potential Environmental Hotspots of Different Impact Categories in Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-15, August.
    20. Fichter, Tobias & Soria, Rafael & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & Lucena, Andre F.P., 2017. "Assessing the potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) for the northeast power system of Brazil using a detailed power system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 695-715.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:7:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-018-0118-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.