IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jagbes/v28y2023i3d10.1007_s13253-023-00546-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving Detection of Changepoints in Short and Noisy Time Series with Local Correlations: Connecting the Events in Pixel Neighbourhoods

Author

Listed:
  • Tuomas Rajala

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Petteri Packalen

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Mari Myllymäki

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Annika Kangas

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

Abstract

Detecting changepoints in time series becomes difficult when the series are short and the observation variance is high. In the context of time series of environmental resource maps, it is often safe to assume that the abrupt events are spatially continuous, and so are the changepoints. We propose to utilise this assumption by means of hierarchical models where the changepoints are modelled using a spatial model. We demonstrate utility of the approach by constructing a Bayesian model based on the Potts model, with additional assumptions relevant to changepoint detection in national multi-source forest inventory maps. We discuss implementation issues and demonstrate the idea’s performance using a simulation study. We then apply the model to forest resource maps in order to detect felling events.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuomas Rajala & Petteri Packalen & Mari Myllymäki & Annika Kangas, 2023. "Improving Detection of Changepoints in Short and Noisy Time Series with Local Correlations: Connecting the Events in Pixel Neighbourhoods," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 564-590, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:28:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s13253-023-00546-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s13253-023-00546-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13253-023-00546-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13253-023-00546-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yudong Chen & Tengyao Wang & Richard J. Samworth, 2022. "High‐dimensional, multiscale online changepoint detection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(1), pages 234-266, February.
    2. Michael Messer & Stefan Albert & Gaby Schneider, 2018. "The multiple filter test for change point detection in time series," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 81(6), pages 589-607, August.
    3. Sean Jewell & Paul Fearnhead & Daniela Witten, 2022. "Testing for a change in mean after changepoint detection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1082-1104, September.
    4. Chen, Yudong & Wang, Tengyao & Samworth, Richard J., 2022. "High-dimensional, multiscale online changepoint detection," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu Jeffrey Hu & Jeroen Rombouts & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Fast Forecasting of Unstable Data Streams for On-Demand Service Platforms," Papers 2303.01887, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    2. Follain, Bertille & Wang, Tengyao & Samworth, Richard J., 2022. "High-dimensional changepoint estimation with heterogeneous missingness," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115014, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Jelle J Goeman & Aldo Solari, 2024. "On selection and conditioning in multiple testing and selective inference," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 111(2), pages 393-416.
    4. N. Henze & C. Kirch & S. G. Meintanis, 2018. "Special Issue with papers from the “3rd workshop on Goodness-of-fit and change-point problems”," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 81(6), pages 587-588, August.
    5. Cho, Haeran & Kirch, Claudia, 2024. "Data segmentation algorithms: Univariate mean change and beyond," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 76-95.
    6. Junwei Hu & Lihong Wang, 2023. "A weighted U-statistic based change point test for multivariate time series," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 753-778, June.
    7. Haeran Cho & Claudia Kirch, 2022. "Two-stage data segmentation permitting multiscale change points, heavy tails and dependence," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 74(4), pages 653-684, August.
    8. Liu, Bin & Zhang, Xinsheng & Liu, Yufeng, 2022. "High dimensional change point inference: Recent developments and extensions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    9. Du, Lilun & Wen, Mengtao, 2023. "False discovery rate approach to dynamic change detection," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Saisai Ding & Xiaoqin Li & Xiang Dong & Wenzhi Yang, 2020. "The Consistency of the CUSUM-Type Estimator of the Change-Point and Its Application," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:28:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s13253-023-00546-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.