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Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

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  • Jason Furman

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Furman, 2022. "Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 79-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:intere:v:57:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10272-022-1034-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10272-022-1034-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    2. Kristin J. Forbes & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christopher G. Collins, 2022. "Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(89), pages 52-72.
    3. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    4. Kristin J. Forbes & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christopher G. Collins, 2021. "Low inflation bends the Phillips curve around the world: Extended results," Working Paper Series WP21-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "How Tight are U.S. Labor Markets?," NBER Working Papers 29739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David Reifschneider & David Wilcox, 2022. "The case for a cautiously optimistic outlook for US inflation," Policy Briefs PB22-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoffer Koch & Diaa Noureldin, 2024. "How we missed the inflation surge: An anatomy of post‐2020 inflation forecast errors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 852-870, July.
    2. Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Malliaris, Mary E., 2023. "Where is the Euro Area headed? Restoration of price stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 848-863.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E31; E37; E65;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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