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The Trilemma for Low Interest Rate Macroeconomics

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  • Jean-Baptiste Michau

    (Ecole Polytechnique, France)

Abstract

Three desirable goals of macroeconomic policy are: full employment, low inflation, and a low debt level with no Ponzi scheme. This paper shows that, when the natural real interest rate is persistently depressed, at most two of these three goals can be simultaneously achieved. Depending of the parameters of the economy, each of the three possibilities can be the preferred option, resulting in a non-trivial policy trilemma.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Baptiste Michau, 2022. "The Trilemma for Low Interest Rate Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2022-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2022-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2014. "Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    2. Kristin J. Forbes & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christopher G. Collins, 2021. "Low inflation bends the Phillips curve around the world: Extended results," Working Paper Series WP21-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    5. Roberto M. Billi & Jordi Galí & Anton Nakov, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy with r," Working Papers 1333, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public dept when r," BIS Working Papers 939, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Kristin J. Forbes & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christopher G. Collins, 2022. "Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(89), pages 52-72.
    8. Robert Barro, 2023. "r Minus g," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 1-17, April.
    9. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    10. Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2001. "A Reinterpretation of Chapter 17 of Keynes's General Theory: Effective Demand Shortage under Dynamic Optimization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 207-236, February.
    11. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2014. "Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    12. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    13. Billi, Roberto & Galí, Jordi & Nakov, Anton, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy with r∗<0," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    15. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2022. "Government Debt and Capital Accumulation in an Era of Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 30024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    17. repec:aei:rpaper:1008582820 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity trap; Ponzi scheme; Secular stagnation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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