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Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World

Author

Listed:
  • Forbes, Kristin
  • Gagnon, Joseph
  • Collins, Christopher

Abstract

This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is “low†— which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is negative) but flat when output is below potential (slack is positive) so that further increases in economic slack have little effect on inflation. This finding is consistent with evidence of downward nominal wage and price rigidity. When inflation is high, the Phillips curve is linear and relatively steep. These results are robust to placing the threshold between the high and low inflation regimes at 2, 3, or 4 percent inflation or for a threshold based on country-specific medians of inflation. In this nonlinear model, international factors play a large role in explaining headline inflation (albeit less so for core inflation), a role that has been increasing since the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Forbes, Kristin & Gagnon, Joseph & Collins, Christopher, 2021. "Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 16583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16583
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    Keywords

    Economic slack; Globalization; Output gap; Price dynamics; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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