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A Foresight Support System Using MCDM Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Ondrus

    (ESSEC Business School)

  • Tung Bui

    (University of Hawai’i)

  • Yves Pigneur

    (University of Lausanne)

Abstract

In this paper, we demonstrate the design and use of a foresight support system (FSS) combining two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Traditionally, foresight activities involves Delphi, focus group, or Estimate–Talk–Estimate techniques to collect opinions of an expert panel. Often, these techniques are not computerized and data visualization is rudimentary. Our highly-interactive FSS solves a number of inherent issues during the data collection, analysis, and results visualization processes. Despite that MCDM methods have been recommended for technology foresight, a validation with a real field experiment was still required. To evaluate our approach and FSS, we conducted a foresight exercise for the Swiss mobile payments market. Our research confirms that the use of MCDM methods supported with a computerized tool can enhance the foresight processes and results.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Ondrus & Tung Bui & Yves Pigneur, 2015. "A Foresight Support System Using MCDM Methods," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 333-358, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:grdene:v:24:y:2015:i:2:d:10.1007_s10726-014-9392-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10726-014-9392-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shuli Liu & Xinwang Liu, 2016. "A Sample Survey Based Linguistic MADM Method with Prospect Theory for Online Shopping Problems," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 749-774, July.
    2. Carlos E. Barbosa & Yuri Lima & Matheus Emerick & Fabio Ferman & Fernanda C. Ribeiro & Jano Moreira de Souza, 2023. "Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
    3. Ilya Kuzminov & Pavel Bakhtin & Elena Khabirova & Irina V. Loginova, 2018. "Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques," HSE Working papers WP BRP 82/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Hasheminasab, Hamidreza & Kharrazi, Mohammadreza & Gholipour, Yaghob & Hashemkhani Zolfani, Sarfaraz & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2024. "Sustainable locating of petroleum refinery projects," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Peter Gomber & Jascha-Alexander Koch & Michael Siering, 2017. "Digital Finance and FinTech: current research and future research directions," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(5), pages 537-580, July.

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