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Multicriteria methods for technology foresight

Author

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  • Tommi Gustafsson

    (Helsinki University of Technology, Finland)

  • Ahti Salo

    (Helsinki University of Technology, Finland)

  • Ramakrishnan Ramanathan

    (College of Commerce and Economics, Sultan Qaboos University, Sultanate of Oman)

Abstract

In recent years, many countries have carried out foresight exercises to better exploit scientific and technological opportunities. Often, these exercises have sought to identify 'critical' or 'key' technologies or, more broadly, to establish research priorities. In this paper, we consider the potential of multicriteria decision-making methods in this kind of priority-determination and examine the limitations of these methods in the foresight context. We also provide results from a combined evaluation and foresight study where multicriteria methods were deployed to support the shaping of research and technology development activities in the Finnish forestry and forest industry. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommi Gustafsson & Ahti Salo & Ramakrishnan Ramanathan, 2003. "Multicriteria methods for technology foresight," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 235-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:235-255
    DOI: 10.1002/for.850
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    2. Elizabeth B. Connelly & Lisa M. Colosi & Andres F. Clarens & James H. Lambert, 2015. "Risk Analysis of Biofuels Industry for Aviation with Scenario‐Based Expert Elicitation," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 178-191, March.
    3. Bratanova, Alexandra & OLSEN, JASON & Hajkowicz, Stefan, 2016. "Prioritising sensory systems for Queensland: An evaluation of alternative sensory systems using multiple criteria analysis," MPRA Paper 119232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Doukas, Haris & Patlitzianas, Konstantinos D. & Psarras, John, 2006. "Supporting sustainable electricity technologies in Greece using MCDM," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 129-136, June.
    5. Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Payam Khazaelpour & Fausto Cavallaro, 2018. "The Multi-Aspect Criterion in the PMADM Outline and Its Possible Application to Sustainability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    6. Jan Ondrus & Tung Bui & Yves Pigneur, 2015. "A Foresight Support System Using MCDM Methods," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 333-358, March.
    7. Franco, L. Alberto & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2010. "Facilitated modelling in operational research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 489-500, September.
    8. Doukas, Haris, 2013. "Modelling of linguistic variables in multicriteria energy policy support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 227-238.
    9. Jones, Dylan & Labib, Ashraf & Willis, Kevin & Costello, Joseph T & Ouelhadj, Djamila & Ikonen, Emmi Susanna & Dominguez Cainzos, Mikel, 2023. "Multi-criteria mapping and prioritization of Arctic and North Atlantic maritime safety and security needs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 827-841.
    10. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    11. Eeva Vilkkumaa & Ahti Salo & Juuso Liesiö, 2014. "Multicriteria Portfolio Modeling for the Development of Shared Action Agendas," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 49-70, January.
    12. Heidary Dahooie, Jalil & Mohammadi, Navid & Daim, Tugrul & Vanaki, Amir Salar & Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras, 2021. "Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology using fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods: Case study from the aerospace industry," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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