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A stochastic control perspective on term structure models with roll-over risk

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Fontana

    (University of Padova)

  • Simone Pavarana

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Wolfgang J. Runggaldier

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability assumption, which enables us to work in the context of the benchmark approach. In a Markovian setting, we extend the control-theoretic approach of Gombani and Runggaldier (Math. Finance 23 (2013) 659–686) and derive representations of spot/forward spreads as value functions of suitable stochastic optimal control problems, formulated under the real-world probability and with power-type objective functionals. We determine endogenously the funding–liquidity spread by relating it to the risk-sensitive optimisation problem of a representative investor.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Fontana & Simone Pavarana & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2023. "A stochastic control perspective on term structure models with roll-over risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 903-932, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:27:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s00780-023-00515-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-023-00515-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk Becherer, 2001. "The numeraire portfolio for unbounded semimartingales," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 327-341.
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    4. Alfeus, Mesias & Grasselli, Martino & Schlögl, Erik, 2020. "A consistent stochastic model of the term structure of interest rates for multiple tenors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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    6. Ioannis Karatzas & Constantinos Kardaras, 2007. "The numéraire portfolio in semimartingale financial models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 447-493, October.
    7. Christa Cuchiero & Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto, 2016. "A general HJM framework for multiple yield curve modelling," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 267-320, April.
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    9. Jacob Bjerre Skov & David Skovmand, 2023. "Decomposing LIBOR in transition: evidence from the futures markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 959-978, June.
    10. Gallitschke, Janek & Seifried (née Müller), Stefanie & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2017. "Interbank interest rates: Funding liquidity risk and XIBOR basis spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 142-152.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Roll-over risk; Liquidity risk; Interest rate; Multiplicative spread; Term rate; Benchmark approach; Stochastic control; Risk-sensitive portfolio optimisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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