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The Total Marital Fertility Rate and Its Extensions
[Le taux de fécondité totale dans le mariage et ses extensions]

Author

Listed:
  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Cornelia Mureşan

    (Babes-Bolyai University)

Abstract

What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is “only” about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Hoem & Cornelia Mureşan, 2011. "The Total Marital Fertility Rate and Its Extensions [Le taux de fécondité totale dans le mariage et ses extensions]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 295-312, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:27:y:2011:i:3:d:10.1007_s10680-011-9237-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-011-9237-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1952_7n4_0700 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Vladimíra Kantorová, 2004. "Education and Entry into Motherhood: The Czech Republic during State Socialism and the Transition Period (1970-1997)," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(10), pages 245-274.
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    7. Jan M. Hoem & Dora Kostova & Aiva Jasilioniene & Cornelia Mureşan, 2009. "Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 239-255, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan M. Hoem & Cornelia Mureşan, 2011. "An Extension of the Conventional TFR [Une extension de l'indicateur conjoncturel de fécondité]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 389-402, November.
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