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Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: an SVAR analysis for the US economy

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  • Marco Stamegna

    (Scuola Normale Superiore)

Abstract

This paper aims to: a) contribute to the empirical literature on induced technical change by investigating the wage-productivity nexus at business cycle frequencies in the US economy; b) explore the changing pattern of the distributive cycle in the US. In order to do so, it carries out the estimation of several structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for two subperiods: the post-war period (1948–1984) and the Great Moderation (1985–2019). We find that: i) wage shocks have positive effects on labour productivity at business cycle frequencies in both subperiods; ii) the US economy exhibits profit-led activity, although this appears to be driven more by technology than by distributive shocks; iii) during the Great Moderation, labour productivity has become acyclical, and real wages are no longer responsive to employment; the disappearance of the procyclical pattern of labour productivity can then be explained by a lessened incentive to invest in labour-saving innovations by firms due to missing wage growth in the upturn of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Stamegna, 2024. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: an SVAR analysis for the US economy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(3), pages 881-929, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:41:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s40888-024-00340-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-024-00340-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour productivity; Endogenous technical change; Income distribution; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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