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The origins and evolution of the debate on wage-led and profit-led regimes

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  • Marc Lavoie

    (Centre d’Économie de Paris Nord, University of Paris 13, University of Sorbonne Paris Cité, France and University of Ottawa, Canada)

Abstract

While Kaleckian authors tend to find that economies are in a wage-led demand regime, Goodwinian authors tend to find that economies are in a profit-led demand regime. This paper avoids econometric technicalities and provides instead a historical perspective, going back to the empirical study of Boddy and Crotty and that of Weisskopf, as well as to the debates that arose in the 1980s between but also within the two main strands of heterodox macroeconomics: the Marxians and the post-Keynesians. This hopefully will help to shed some light on the more recent controversy over the existence of profit-led or wage-led demand regimes. A noteworthy feature of the paper is the emphasis on the existence of overhead labour costs and hence the distinction between managers and ordinary workers. These are likely to bias empirical measurements of demand regimes towards the profit-led regime at high-frequency data; they may also give rise to paradoxical results; and they justify the claim that an increase in the wage share of ordinary workers is likely to have a positive effect on aggregate demand even if economies are profit-led.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Lavoie, 2017. "The origins and evolution of the debate on wage-led and profit-led regimes," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 200-221, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:ejeepi:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p200-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Ferreiro & Carmen Gomez, 2022. "Employment protection, employment and unemployment rates in European Union countries during the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 240-258, July.
    2. Lilian N. Rolim & Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "Income distribution, productivity growth, and workers’ bargaining power in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 473-516, April.
    3. Jesus Ferreiro & Carmen Gómez, 2018. "Employment protection and labour market performance in European Union countries during the Great Recession," FMM Working Paper 31-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Building blocks of a heterodox business cycle theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 334-358, April.
    5. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    6. Tonni, Lorenzo, 2023. "Business cycle and factor income shares: a VAR sign restrictions approach," MPRA Paper 116527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arestis, Philip & Ferreiro, Jesus & Gomez, Carmen, 2023. "Does employment protection legislation affect employment and unemployment?11We acknowledge the comments of an editor and an associate editor of the journal and three reviewers. Their suggestions and r," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Jose Perez-Montiel & Carles Manera Erbina, 2019. "Investment Sustained by Consumption: A Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Gonzalez, Alejandro, 2024. "Bargaining power, demand growth and the decline of the labor share," OSF Preprints 78kad, Center for Open Science.
    10. Guilherme Spinato Morlin & Nikolas Passos & Riccardo Pariboni, 2024. "Growth Theory and the Growth Model Perspective: Insights from the Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 1130-1155, July.
    11. Jesus Ferreiro & Carmen Gomez, 2020. "Employment protection and labor market results in Europe," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 401-449, April.
    12. Betul Mutlugun & Ahmet Ä°ncekara, 2023. "Estimation of the Distribution and Demand Dynamics in Turkey: Structural Vector Autoregression Approach to a Post-Keynesian Model," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 1-54, June.
    13. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Whatever Happened to the ‘Goodwin Pattern’? Profit Squeeze Dynamics in the Modern American Labour Market," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 263-286, January.
    14. Prante, Franz J., 2019. "Income distribution and the multiplier: An exploration of nonlinear distribution effects in linear Kaleckian distribution and growth models," IPE Working Papers 121/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    15. Arestis, Philip & Ferreiro, Jesus & Gómez, Carmen, 2020. "Quality of employment and employment protection. Effects of employment protection on temporary and permanent employment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 180-188.
    16. Marco Stamegna, 2024. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: an SVAR analysis for the US economy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(3), pages 881-929, October.
    17. Tonni, Lorenzo, 2022. "Business cycle and factor income shares: a VAR sign restriction approach," MPRA Paper 114586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Won Jun Nah & Lavoie, Marc, 2018. "Overhead labour costs in a neo-Kaleckian growth model with autonomous expenditures," IPE Working Papers 111/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    19. Guilherme Klein Martins & Fernando Rugitsky, 2021. "The Long Expansion and the Profit Squeeze: Output and Profit Cycles in Brazil (1996–2016)," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 373-397, September.
    20. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Guilherme Klein Martins & Fernando Rugitsky, 2018. "The commodities boom and the profit squeeze: output and profit cycles in Brazil (1996-2016)," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_09, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    22. Yuki Tada & Kazuhiro Kurose, 2024. "The Pasinetti Index and the Rise of Inequality in the Age of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan," TERG Discussion Papers 488, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    23. Hein, Eckhard & Prante, Franz, 2018. "Functional distribution and wage inequality in recent Kaleckian growth models," IPE Working Papers 110/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    24. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2021. "Production structure, output and profits - A note," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 88, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    overhead labour costs; wage-led regimes; profit squeeze; neo-Kaleckian models; growth and distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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