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Secular Stagnation and Income Distribution Dynamics

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  • David Kiefer, Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, Codrina Rada, Rudiger von Arnim

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on secular stagnation by estimating a measure of potential output growth for the post-war US economy derived from a novel model specification that allows for the cyclical interactions between income distribution, represented by the trajectory of the labor share of income, and economic activity, as measured by capacity utilization. The results obtained show that potential output growth exhibits a gradual decline that predates the Great Recession and follows the downward trajectory of the labor share of income, thus suggesting the existence of an important long-run relationship between income distribution and output growth in the USA.

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  • David Kiefer, Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, Codrina Rada, Rudiger von Arnim, 2019. "Secular Stagnation and Income Distribution Dynamics," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2019_05, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2019_05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zamparelli, Luca, 2022. "On Labor Productivity Growth and the Wage Share with Endogenous Size and Direction of Technical Change," MPRA Paper 112684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    3. Manuel David Cruz & Daniele Tavani, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: A Classical-Marxian View," Working Papers PKWP2229, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Arnim, Rudiger von, 2021. "Endogenous fluctuations in demand and distribution: An empirical investigation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 204-220.
    5. Codrina Rada & Ansel Schiavone & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "Goodwin, Baumol & Lewis: How structural change can lead to inequality and stagnation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1070-1093, November.
    6. Zamparelli, Luca, 2024. "On the positive relation between the wage share and labor productivity growth with endogenous size and direction of technical change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Marco Stamegna, 2024. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: an SVAR analysis for the US economy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(3), pages 881-929, October.
    8. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    9. Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2020. "A sectoral approach to measuring output gap: Evidence from 20 US sectors over 1948-2019," Working Papers 2012, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.
    10. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Servaas Storm, 2021. "Labour's loss: Why macroeconomics matters," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(299), pages 249-285.
    12. Codrina Rada, Ansel Schiavone, Rudiger von Arnim, 2021. "Goodwin, Baumol & Lewis: How structural change can lead to inequality and stagnation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2021_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    13. Acocella, Nicola, 2021. "Stagnation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 121-140.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output growth; capacity utilization; income distribution; labor share; US economy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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