Research on the path of industrial sector's carbon peak based on the perspective of provincial differentiation: a case study from China

Carbon emissions in the industrial sector have received widespread attention around the world, and achieving carbon peak in the industrial sector has become an important component of achieving sustainable development. However, there are significant differences in the level of industrial development across different regions in some countries, and a differentiated peak path needs to be formulated accordingly. In this paper, we construct a methodology system for industrial carbon peak, which includes “sector clustering—factor decomposition—scenario analysis—path selection.” We design a national industrial carbon peak path at the provincial level and conduct empirical analysis using China as an example. The results show that industrial investment scale is the most important factor promoting the growth of carbon emissions in each plate. The Chinese government’s goal of achieving carbon peak in the industrial sector before 2030 is highly reasonable and feasible. By comprehensively considering emission reduction effectiveness and implementation difficulty, the best industrial peak path is selected. The corresponding ratio of China’s industrial carbon emissions in 2030 to the benchmark year is most likely to be between 1.043 and 1.054, and the degree of implementation difficulty is moderate. In addition, several differentiated macro-policy recommendations for each cluster’s development are proposed based on their actual development, which can provide useful references and guidance for local governments in formulating their development plans.