IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v25y2023i10d10.1007_s10668-022-02497-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal operation of hydropower reservoirs under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Ehteram

    (Semnan University)

  • Ali Najah Ahmed

    (Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN))

  • Ming Fai Chow

    (Monash University Malaysia, Jalan Lagoon Selatan, Bandar Sunway)

  • Sarmad Dashti Latif

    (Komar University of Science and Technology)

  • Kwok-wing Chau

    (Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

  • Kai Lun Chong

    (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Jalan Bandar Sg. Long, Bandar Sg. Long, Cheras)

  • Ahmed El-Shafie

    (University of Malaya (UM)
    United Arab Emirates University)

Abstract

The current research aims to optimize the water release to generate optimal hydropower generation for the future up to the year 2039. The study’s novelty is the adaptive and nonadaptive rule curves for power production using optimization algorithms under the climate change model. In addition, the study used the RCP 8.5 scenario based on seven climate change models. A weighting method was used to select the best climate change models. The method can allocate more weights to more accurate models. The results revealed that the temperature increased by about 26% in the future, while precipitation would decreased by around 3%. The bat algorithm was also used, given it is a powerful method in solving optimization problems in water resources management. The results indicated that less power could be generated during the future period in comparison with the base period as there will be less inflow to the reservoir and released water for hydropower generation. However, by applying adaptive rule curves, the hydropower generation may be improved even under the climate change conditions. For example, the volumetric reliability index obtained when using adaptive rule curves (92%) was higher than when nonadaptive rule curves (90%) were applied. Also, the adoption of adaptive rule curves decreased the vulnerability index for the future period. Therefore, the bat algorithm with adaptive rule curves has a high potential for optimizing reservoir operations under the climate change conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Ming Fai Chow & Sarmad Dashti Latif & Kwok-wing Chau & Kai Lun Chong & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2023. "Optimal operation of hydropower reservoirs under climate change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 10627-10659, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02497-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02497-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-022-02497-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-022-02497-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali Zarei & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Madjid Eshaghi Gordji & Hojat Karami, 2019. "Optimal Reservoir Operation Using Bat and Particle Swarm Algorithm and Game Theory Based on Optimal Water Allocation among Consumers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 3071-3093, July.
    2. Mohammed Falah Allawi & Othman Jaafar & Mohammad Ehteram & Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2018. "Synchronizing Artificial Intelligence Models for Operating the Dam and Reservoir System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3373-3389, August.
    3. Mahsa Jahandideh-Tehrani & Omid Bozorg Haddad & Hugo Loáiciga, 2015. "Hydropower Reservoir Management Under Climate Change: The Karoon Reservoir System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 749-770, February.
    4. Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Chow Ming Fai & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Accuracy Enhancement for Zone Mapping of a Solar Radiation Forecasting Based Multi-Objective Model for Better Management of the Generation of Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-26, July.
    5. Fatemeh Barzegari Banadkooki & Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Chow Ming Fai & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Wani M. Ridwam & Ahmed Sefelnasr & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Precipitation Forecasting Using Multilayer Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Optimization Based on Flow Regime Algorithm Taking into Account Uncertainties of Soft Computing Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Aida Tayebiyan & Thamer Ahmed Mohammed Ali & Abdul Halim Ghazali & M. A. Malek, 2016. "Optimization of Exclusive Release Policies for Hydropower Reservoir Operation by Using Genetic Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1203-1216, February.
    7. Hamidreza Ghazvinian & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Hojat Karami & Saeed Farzin & Mohammad Ehteram & Md Shabbir Hossain & Chow Ming Fai & Huzaifa Bin Hashim & Vijay P Singh & Faizah Che Ros & Ali Najah Ahme, 2019. "Integrated support vector regression and an improved particle swarm optimization-based model for solar radiation prediction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, May.
    8. Nazak Rouzegari & Yousef Hassanzadeh & Mohammad Taghi Sattari, 2019. "Using the Hybrid Simulated Annealing-M5 Tree Algorithms to Extract the If-Then Operation Rules in a Single Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3655-3672, August.
    9. Hojat Karami & Saeed Farzin & Aylin Jahangiri & Mohammad Ehteram & Ozgur Kisi & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Multi-Reservoir System Optimization Based on Hybrid Gravitational Algorithm to Minimize Water-Supply Deficiencies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2741-2760, June.
    10. Byman H. Hamududu & Hambulo Ngoma, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on water resources availability in Zambia: implications for irrigation development," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 2817-2838, April.
    11. M. Ahmadi & Omid Bozorg Haddad & M. Mariño, 2014. "Extraction of Flexible Multi-Objective Real-Time Reservoir Operation Rules," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(1), pages 131-147, January.
    12. Mike Spiliotis & Luis Mediero & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Optimization of Hedging Rules for Reservoir Operation During Droughts Based on Particle Swarm Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5759-5778, December.
    13. Mohammad Ehteram & Vijay P Singh & Ahmad Ferdowsi & Sayed Farhad Mousavi & Saeed Farzin & Hojat Karami & Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Sai Hin Lai & Ozgur Kisi & M A Malek & Ali Na, 2019. "An improved model based on the support vector machine and cuckoo algorithm for simulating reference evapotranspiration," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Behrang Beiranvand & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Optimization of Dams Reservoir Operation Using the Meta-heuristic Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3457-3526, July.
    2. Mohammad Ehteram & Hojat Karami & Sayed Farhad Mousavi & Saaed Farzin & Alcigeimes B. Celeste & Ahmad-El Shafie, 2018. "Reservoir Operation by a New Evolutionary Algorithm: Kidney Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4681-4706, November.
    3. Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2017. "Multi-Criteria Environmental Impact Assessment of Alternative Irrigation Networks with an Adopted Matrix-Based Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 903-928, February.
    4. Javad Jamshidi & Mojtaba Shourian, 2019. "Hedging Rules-Based Optimal Reservoir Operation Using Bat Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4525-4538, October.
    5. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Mohammad Solgi & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2017. "Investigation of Climatic Variability with Hybrid Statistical Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 341-353, January.
    7. Mehrdad Taghian & Iman Ahmadianfar, 2018. "Maximizing the Firm Energy Yield Preserving Total Energy Generation Via an Optimal Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 141-154, January.
    8. Thibaut Cuvelier & Pierre Archambeau & Benjamin Dewals & Quentin Louveaux, 2018. "Comparison Between Robust and Stochastic Optimisation for Long-term Reservoir Management Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1599-1614, March.
    9. Sedighkia, Mahdi & Abdoli, Asghar, 2023. "An optimization approach for managing environmental impacts of generating hydropower on fish biodiversity," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    10. Lu, Yunbo & Wang, Lunche & Zhu, Canming & Zou, Ling & Zhang, Ming & Feng, Lan & Cao, Qian, 2023. "Predicting surface solar radiation using a hybrid radiative Transfer–Machine learning model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    11. Tao Bai & Lianzhou Wu & Jian-xia Chang & Qiang Huang, 2015. "Multi-Objective Optimal Operation Model of Cascade Reservoirs and Its Application on Water and Sediment Regulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2751-2770, June.
    12. Omar A. de la Cruz Courtois & Maritza Liliana Arganis Juárez & Delva Guichard Romero, 2021. "Simulated Optimal Operation Policies of a Reservoir System Obtained with Continuous Functions Using Synthetic Inflows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2249-2263, May.
    13. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    14. Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Chow Ming Fai & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Accuracy Enhancement for Zone Mapping of a Solar Radiation Forecasting Based Multi-Objective Model for Better Management of the Generation of Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-26, July.
    15. Rong Tang & Ke Li & Wei Ding & Yuntao Wang & Huicheng Zhou & Guangtao Fu, 2020. "Reference Point Based Multi-Objective Optimization of Reservoir Operation: a Comparison of Three Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1005-1020, February.
    16. Beshavard, Mahdi & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Establishing effective warning storage to derive optimal reservoir operation policy based on the drought condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    17. Hamid Kardan Moghaddam & Saman Javadi & Timothy O. Randhir & Neda Kavehkar, 2022. "A Multi-Indicator, Non-Cooperative Game Model to Resolve Conflicts for Aquifer Restoration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5521-5543, November.
    18. Gokmen Tayfur, 2017. "Modern Optimization Methods in Water Resources Planning, Engineering and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3205-3233, August.
    19. Liping Li & Pan Liu & David Rheinheimer & Chao Deng & Yanlai Zhou, 2014. "Identifying Explicit Formulation of Operating Rules for Multi-Reservoir Systems Using Genetic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1545-1565, April.
    20. Mahdi Sedighkia & Asghar Abdoli, 2023. "Design of optimal environmental flow regime at downstream of multireservoir systems by a coupled SWAT-reservoir operation optimization method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 834-854, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02497-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.