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Accuracy Enhancement for Zone Mapping of a Solar Radiation Forecasting Based Multi-Objective Model for Better Management of the Generation of Renewable Energy

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Ehteram

    (Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan 35131-19111, Iran)

  • Ali Najah Ahmed

    (Institute of Energy Infrastructure (IEI), Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Chow Ming Fai

    (Institute of Energy Infrastructure (IEI), Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
    Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

  • Ahmed El-Shafie

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

Abstract

The estimation of solar radiation for planning current and future periods in different fields, such as renewable energy generation, is very important for decision makers. The current study presents a hybrid model structure based on a multi-objective shark algorithm and fuzzy method for forecasting and generating a zone map for solar radiation as an alternative solution for future renewable energy production. The multi-objective shark algorithm attempts to select the best input combination for solar radiation (SR) estimation and the optimal value of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) parameter, and the power parameter of the inverse distance weight (IDW) is computed. Three provinces in Iran with different climates and air quality index conditions have been considered as case studies for this research. In addition, comparative analysis has been carried out with other models, including multi-objective genetic algorithm-ANFIS and multi-objective particle swarm optimization-ANFIS. The Taguchi model is used to obtain the best value of random parameters for multi-objective algorithms. The comparison of the results shows that the relative deviation index (RDI) of the distributed solutions in the Pareto front based multi-objective shark algorithm has the lowest value in the spread index, spacing metric index, favorable distribution, and good diversity. The generated Pareto solutions based on the multi-objective shark algorithm are compared to those based on the genetic algorithm and particle swarm algorithm and found to be the optimal and near ideal solutions. In addition, the determination of the best solution based on a multi-criteria decision model enables the best input to the model to be selected based on different effective parameters. Three different performance indices have been used in this study, including the root mean square error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and mean absolute error. The generated zone map based on the multi-objective shark algorithm-ANFIS highly matches with the observed data in all zones in all case studies. Additionally, the analysis shows that the air quality index (AQI) should be considered as effective input for SR estimation. Finally, the measurement and analysis of the uncertainty based on the multi-objective shark algorithm-ANFIS were carried out. As a result, the proposed new hybrid model is highly suitable for the generation of accurate zone mapping for different renewable energy generation fields. In addition, the proposed hybrid model showed outstanding performance for the development of a forecasting model for the solar radiation value, which is essential for the decision-makers to draw a future plan for generating renewable energy based solar radiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Chow Ming Fai & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Accuracy Enhancement for Zone Mapping of a Solar Radiation Forecasting Based Multi-Objective Model for Better Management of the Generation of Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2730-:d:249050
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Ming Fai Chow & Sarmad Dashti Latif & Kwok-wing Chau & Kai Lun Chong & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2023. "Optimal operation of hydropower reservoirs under climate change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 10627-10659, October.
    3. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.

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