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Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan

Author

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  • Kamal Ahmed

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
    Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences)

  • Zafar Iqbal

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM))

  • Najeebullah Khan

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM))

  • Balach Rasheed

    (Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences)

  • Nadeem Nawaz

    (Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences)

  • Irfan Malik

    (Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences)

  • Mohammad Noor

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM))

Abstract

Modelling the probable effect of global warming on precipitation over the northern sub-Himalayan region is very important to ensure sustainable water supply for Pakistan. The aim of the study is to develop statistical downscaling models for the projection of precipitation using the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global circulation models and using future scenarios. The models were developed considering the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation data as model predictands. The downscaling models were developed using non-local model output statistics approach based on support vector machine (SVM). Random Forest was applied to formulate multimodal ensemble (MME) for the projection of precipitation. The accuracy of models was judged using the percentage of bias, normalized root mean square error, and the modified index of agreement (md). Results showed that the SVM downscaling model simulated the temporal and spatial distributions of historical precipitation with high skills. The MME showed variations in the range of − 12.68% to 6.31%, − 9.61% to 3.45%, − 8.70% to 9.15%, and − 9.40% to 5.47% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The spatial pattern of annual mean rainfall of MME revealed an expansion of high rainfall area, especially in 2070–2099 under all scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamal Ahmed & Zafar Iqbal & Najeebullah Khan & Balach Rasheed & Nadeem Nawaz & Irfan Malik & Mohammad Noor, 2020. "Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7831-7845, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:22:y:2020:i:8:d:10.1007_s10668-019-00548-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-019-00548-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhihong Jiang & Jie Song & Laurent Li & Weilin Chen & Zhifu Wang & Ji Wang, 2012. "Extreme climate events in China: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 385-401, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pawan Kumar Chaubey & Rajesh Kumar Mall & Prashant K. Srivastava, 2023. "Changes in Extremes Rainfall Events in Present and Future Climate Scenarios over the Teesta River Basin, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, March.

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