IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v177y2024i7d10.1007_s10584-024-03771-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic projection of extreme precipitation changes over Iran by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

Author

Listed:
  • Sakineh Khansalari

    (Research Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science (RIMAS))

  • Atefeh Mohammadi

    (Research Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science (RIMAS))

Abstract

Based on the historical (period of 1990–2014) spatial and temporal ranking, a future projection of four extreme precipitation indices over Iran is conducted. A multi-model ensemble approach and a rank-based weighting method with ten models from the CMIP6 dataset are used for this projection. The weight of each model is calculated based on its historical simulation skill, and weighted models are employed for future projections across three periods (2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100), under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that an increase in total extreme precipitation (R95p) and the absolute intensity of extreme precipitation (AEPI) in Iran is almost certain in all periods, under all scenarios. The maximum increase of the R95p index is 10%, and the probability of its increase in all periods and scenarios (except for SSP1-2.6 scenario in the 2076–2100 period) exceeds 50%. This probability of increase is particularly high in the first period, ranging from 70 to 90%. In all periods and scenarios, the median of the number of days with extreme precipitation (R95d) is close to zero or negative. This index exhibits a decrease compared to the historical period, with a probability of over 60%, except for the 2026–2050 period under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the probability of an increase in the AEPI compared to the historical period is more than 75%. This study finds no significant increase or decrease in the fraction of total rainfall from events exceeding the extreme precipitation threshold (R95pT).

Suggested Citation

  • Sakineh Khansalari & Atefeh Mohammadi, 2024. "Probabilistic projection of extreme precipitation changes over Iran by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03771-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03771-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03771-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-024-03771-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyoung-Tae Lee & Hye-Won Jeon & Sook-Young Park & Jaepil Cho & Kwang-Hyung Kim, 2022. "Comparison of projected rice blast epidemics in the Korean Peninsula between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Xuebin Zhang & Lisa Alexander & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Philip Jones & Albert Klein Tank & Thomas C. Peterson & Blair Trewin & Francis W. Zwiers, 2011. "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(6), pages 851-870, November.
    3. Myles R. Allen & William J. Ingram, 2002. "Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 419(6903), pages 224-232, September.
    4. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2022. "Evaluation of CMIP6 models in the representation of observed extreme temperature indices trends in South America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Seyed Sadeghi & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2015. "Trend analysis of the rainfall erosivity index at different time scales in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 383-404, May.
    6. Miguel A. Lovino & María Josefina Pierrestegui & Omar V. Müller & Ernesto Hugo Berbery & Gabriela V. Müller & Max Pasten, 2021. "Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Zhihong Jiang & Jie Song & Laurent Li & Weilin Chen & Zhifu Wang & Ji Wang, 2012. "Extreme climate events in China: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 385-401, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felipe Gateño & Pablo A. Mendoza & Nicolás Vásquez & Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga & Héctor Jiménez & Catalina Jerez & Ximena Vargas & Eduardo Rubio-Álvarez & Santiago Montserrat, 2024. "Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-33, June.
    2. Jin Huang & Fangmin Zhang & Zhenghua Hu & Shutao Chen, 2019. "Climatology of rainfall erosivity during 1961–2012 in Jiangsu Province, southeast China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1155-1168, September.
    3. Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi & Mohsen Zabihi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2017. "Spatiotemporal mapping of rainfall erosivity index for different return periods in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 35-56, May.
    4. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Baoni Li & Lihua Xiong & Quan Zhang & Shilei Chen & Han Yang & Shuhui Guo, 2022. "Effects of land use/cover change on atmospheric humidity in three urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 577-613, August.
    6. Festo Richard Silungwe & Frieder Graef & Sonoko Dorothea Bellingrath-Kimura & Emmanuel A Chilagane & Siza Donald Tumbo & Fredrick Cassian Kahimba & Marcos Alberto Lana, 2019. "Modelling Rainfed Pearl Millet Yield Sensitivity to Abiotic Stresses in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania, Eastern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Yue Sui & Xianmei Lang & Dabang Jiang, 2014. "Time of emergence of climate signals over China under the RCP4.5 scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 265-276, July.
    8. Peng Jiang & Zhongbo Yu & Mahesh R. Gautam & Kumud Acharya, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4807-4821, October.
    9. Christoph Schär & Nikolina Ban & Erich M. Fischer & Jan Rajczak & Jürg Schmidli & Christoph Frei & Filippo Giorgi & Thomas R. Karl & Elizabeth J. Kendon & Albert M. G. Klein Tank & Paul A. O’Gorman & , 2016. "Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 201-216, July.
    10. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    12. Bing-Chen Jhong & Ching-Pin Tung, 2018. "Evaluating Future Joint Probability of Precipitation Extremes with a Copula-Based Assessing Approach in Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(13), pages 4253-4274, October.
    13. Megan Ceronsky & David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Checking The Price Tag On Catastrophe: The Social Cost Of Carbon Under Non-Linear Climate Response," Working Papers FNU-87, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005.
    14. Leslie A. Jones & Clint C. Muhlfeld & Lucy A. Marshall, 2017. "Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 641-655, October.
    15. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Pablo Méndez-Lázaro & Frank E. Muller-Karger & Daniel Otis & Matthew J. McCarthy & Marisol Peña-Orellana, 2014. "Assessing Climate Variability Effects on Dengue Incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    17. Natalie Teale & David A. Robinson, 2022. "Long-term variability in atmospheric moisture transport and relationship with heavy precipitation in the eastern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-23, November.
    18. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.
    19. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher & Martin Quaas, 2019. "Mitigation strategies under the threat of solar radiation management," Working Papers hal-04141891, HAL.
    20. Hong Ying & Hongyan Zhang & Ying Sun & Jianjun Zhao & Zhengxiang Zhang & Xiaoyi Guo & Hang Zhao & Rihan Wu & Guorong Deng, 2020. "CMIP5-Based Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Temperature Events during 2021–2100 in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03771-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.