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A comment on ‘on inflation expectations in the NKPC model’

Author

Listed:
  • Markku Lanne

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Jani Luoto

    (University of Helsinki)

Abstract

Franses (Empir Econ, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1417-8 ) criticised the practice in the empirical literature of replacing expected inflation by the sum of realised future inflation and an error in estimating the parameters of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). In particular, he argued that this assumption goes against the Wold decomposition theorem and makes the error term in the hybrid NKPC equation correlated with future inflation, invalidating the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator of Lanne and Luoto (J Econ Dyn Control 37:561–570, 2013). We argue that despite the correlation, the Wold theorem is not violated, and the ML estimator is consistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2019. "A comment on ‘on inflation expectations in the NKPC model’," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1865-1867, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1582-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1582-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2013. "Autoregression-based estimation of the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 561-570.
    2. Lanne Markku & Saikkonen Pentti, 2011. "Noncausal Autoregressions for Economic Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-32, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Non-causal time series; Non-Gaussian time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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