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Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Underwriting Profits

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  • Higgins, Matthew L
  • Thistle, Paul D

Abstract

The presence of an underwriting profit cycle in property/liability insurance has become a stylized fact. Models of this "underwriting cycle" imply that the insurance market is governed by two regimes, as capacity is constrained or not. We apply the smooth transition regression model to insurance industry data for 1934-93 to test for a regime shift. We find a rapid shift between two distinct regimes with different dynamics. When capacity is not restricted, we find no evidence of a cycle. The cycle is present in periods when capacity is restricted, immediately following World War II and after 1968. The underwriting cycle appears to be a recent phenomenon. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Higgins, Matthew L & Thistle, Paul D, 2000. "Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Underwriting Profits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 442-457, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:38:y:2000:i:3:p:442-57
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia H. Born & Evan M. Eastman & E. Tice Sirmans, 2023. "Managed care or carefully managed? Management of underwriting profitability by health insurers," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(1), pages 5-31, January.
    2. Liu, Guan-Chun & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2016. "The nexus between insurance activity and economic growth: A bootstrap rolling window approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 299-319.
    3. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.
    4. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1959-1978, December.
    6. Shi‐jie Jiang & Jeffrey Tzu‐Hao Tsai & Feiyun Xiang, 2023. "Dynamics of underwriting profits in the US market: Payout patterns and regulation effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3100-3118, July.
    7. Marc A. Ragin & Martin Halek, 2016. "Market Expectations Following Catastrophes: An Examination of Insurance Broker Returns," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 849-876, December.
    8. Jiang, Shi-jie & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2012. "Dynamics of underwriting profits: Evidence from the U.S. insurance market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15.
    9. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2015. "Nonlinear attractors and asymmetries between non-life insurance premiums and financial markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 783-799, November.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Strauss, Jason, 2007. "Equilibrium in the Insurance Industry: Price and Probability of Insolvency," MPRA Paper 11015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Seungmook Choi & Don Hardigree & Paul D. Thistle, 2002. "The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 530-548, January.
    13. Ronnie J. Phillips & David Nickerson, 2011. "Underwriting in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets: Regulation, Risk and Volatility," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-19, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    14. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Cyclicity in the French Property," Working Papers 2014-47, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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