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Estimating the financial crisis’ impact on potential output

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  • Benati, Luca

Abstract

I use a multivariate Blanchard–Quah decomposition to investigate the financial crisis’ impact on potential output in the Euro area, the US, Japan, and the UK. I detect an impact for all countries, which is especially severe for the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Benati, Luca, 2012. "Estimating the financial crisis’ impact on potential output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 113-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:114:y:2012:i:1:p:113-119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.09.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    4. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    5. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May.
    8. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    9. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bakas, Dimitrios & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2020. "Financial crises and economic recovery: Cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    3. Bijapur, Mohan, 2012. "Do financial crises erode potential output? evidence from OECD inflation responses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 56616, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    5. Zherlitsyn, Dmytro & Levytskyi, Stanislav & Mykhailyk, Denys & Ogloblina, Victoriia, 2019. "Assessment of Financial Potential as a Determinant of Enterprise Development," MPRA Paper 97069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Na, LI & Minjun, Shi & Wen, Huang, 2013. "Impacts of the Euro sovereign debt crisis on global trade and economic growth: A General Equilibrium Analysis based on GTAP model," Conference papers 332356, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Bijapur, Mohan, 2012. "Do financial crises erode potential output? Evidence from OECD inflation responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 700-703.
    8. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2020. "Populism and income redistribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Fernando N. de Oliveira & Myrian Petrassi, 2015. "Do Financial Crises Erode Potential Output? a cross country analysis of industrial and emerging economies," Working Papers Series 388, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2017. "The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168180, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Mr. Harald Finger & Siddharth Kothari & Ms. Elena Loukoianova, 2020. "Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2020/272, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Structural VARs; Long-run restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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