IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v55y2018i1d10.1007_s00181-017-1415-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of gun control on crimes: a spatial interactive fixed effects approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Shi

    (Jinan University)

  • Lung-fei Lee

    (The Ohio State University)

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of right-to-carry laws on crimes. We relax the assumption that unobserved time effects have homogeneous impacts on states; therefore, states with right-to-carry laws may follow different time trends which might be stronger or weaker than those of other states including states with no right-to-carry laws. The heterogeneous time trends are modeled by a factor structure where time factors represent time-varying unobservables, and factor loadings account for their heterogeneous impacts across states. No assumption is imposed on the shape of the time trend. Crime statistics exhibit spatial dependence, and a state’s adoption of right-to-carry law may have external effects on its neighboring states. Using a dynamic spatial panel model with interactive effects, we find positive spatial spillovers in crime rates. Depending on a crime category, an average $$1\%$$ 1 % reduction in crime rates in neighboring states can decrease crime rates by 0.069–0.287%, with property crimes exhibiting higher degrees of spatial dependence than violent crimes. We find that although the passage of right-to-carry laws has no significant effects on the overall violent or property crime rates, they lead to short-term increases in robbery and medium-term decreases in murder rates. The results are robust to the number of factors, a different sample ending point, and some alternative spatial weights matrices and model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Shi & Lung-fei Lee, 2018. "The effects of gun control on crimes: a spatial interactive fixed effects approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 233-263, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1415-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1415-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-017-1415-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-017-1415-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2011. "Structural interactions in spatial panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 69-94, February.
    2. Yu, Jihai & de Jong, Robert & Lee, Lung-fei, 2008. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both n and T are large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 118-134, September.
    3. Badi H. Baltagi, 2015. "Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: Solutions Manual for Econometrics, edition 3, chapter 0, pages 233-257, Springer.
    4. Badi Baltagi & Alain Pirotte, 2011. "Seemingly unrelated regressions with spatial error components," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 5-49, February.
    5. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Damian Kozbur, 2016. "Inference in High-Dimensional Panel Models With an Application to Gun Control," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 590-605, October.
    6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    7. Natalia Bailey & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Exponent of Cross‐Sectional Dependence: Estimation and Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 929-960, September.
    8. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    9. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    12. H. Kelejian, Harry & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2001. "On the asymptotic distribution of the Moran I test statistic with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 219-257, September.
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    14. Ahn, Seung C. & Lee, Young H. & Schmidt, Peter, 2013. "Panel data models with multiple time-varying individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 1-14.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    16. Du, Zaichao & Zhang, Lin, 2015. "Home-purchase restriction, property tax and housing price in China: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 558-568.
    17. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 535-551, July.
    18. Su, Liangjun & Yang, Zhenlin, 2015. "QML estimation of dynamic panel data models with spatial errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 230-258.
    19. Lee, Yoonseok, 2014. "Nonparametric Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Models With Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(6), pages 1315-1347, December.
    20. Alexei Onatski, 2010. "Determining the Number of Factors from Empirical Distribution of Eigenvalues," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1004-1016, November.
    21. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Martin Weidner, 2015. "Linear Regression for Panel With Unknown Number of Factors as Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(4), pages 1543-1579, July.
    22. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    23. Sah, Raaj K, 1991. "Social Osmosis and Patterns of Crime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1272-1295, December.
    24. Dukpa Kim & Tatsushi Oka, 2014. "Divorce Law Reforms And Divorce Rates In The Usa: An Interactive Fixed‐Effects Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 231-245, March.
    25. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    26. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-533, May.
    27. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote & José A. Scheinkman, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 507-548.
    28. Cheng Hsiao & H. Steve Ching & Shui Ki Wan, 2012. "A Panel Data Approach For Program Evaluation: Measuring The Benefits Of Political And Economic Integration Of Hong Kong With Mainland China," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 705-740, August.
    29. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2014. "Efficient GMM estimation of spatial dynamic panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 174-197.
    30. James P. LeSage, 2014. "What Regional Scientists Need to Know about Spatial Econometrics," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 44(1), pages 13-32, Spring.
    31. Black, Dan A & Nagin, Daniel S, 1998. "Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 209-219, January.
    32. Mark Duggan, 2001. "More Guns, More Crime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1086-1114, October.
    33. Solmaria Halleck Vega & J. Paul Elhorst, 2015. "The Slx Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 339-363, June.
    34. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    35. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Rubin, Paul H, 1998. "Lives Saved or Lives Lost? The Effects of Concealed-Handgun Laws on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 468-474, May.
    36. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation and New Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1802-1820, December.
    37. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
    38. Lott, John R, Jr & Mustard, David B, 1997. "Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-68, January.
    39. Shi, Wei & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Spatial dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 323-347.
    40. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    42. Bronars, Stephen G & Lott, John R, Jr, 1998. "Criminal Deterrence, Geographic Spillovers, and the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 475-479, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alnajjar, Hella & Ozbay, Kaan & Iftekhar, Lamia, 2023. "An exploratory analysis on city characteristics likely to affect autonomous vehicle legislation enactment across the United States," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 37-45.
    2. Alejandro Almeida & Antonio Golpe & Raquel Justo, 2021. "From hot to cold: A spatial analysis of self‐employment in the United States," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 1005-1023, August.
    3. Lin, Xu & Zhang, Jihu & Jiang, Shanhe, 2022. "Spatial and temporal correlations of crime in Detroit: Evidence from spatial dynamic panel data models," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Xu Lin & Lizi Wu, 2021. "Interdependence among mental health care providers: evidence from a spatial dynamic panel data model with interactive fixed effects," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(1), pages 131-165, August.
    5. John J. Donohue, 2022. "The Effect of Permissive Gun Laws on Crime," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 704(1), pages 92-117, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Wei & Lee, Lung-fei, 2018. "A spatial panel data model with time varying endogenous weights matrices and common factors," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 6-34.
    2. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng, 2021. "Dynamic spatial panel data models with common shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 134-160.
    3. Shi, Wei & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Spatial dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 323-347.
    4. Guido M. Kuersteiner & Ingmar R. Prucha, 2020. "Dynamic Spatial Panel Models: Networks, Common Shocks, and Sequential Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(5), pages 2109-2146, September.
    5. Cynthia Fan Yang, 2021. "Common factors and spatial dependence: an application to US house prices," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 14-50, January.
    6. Guowei Cui & Vasilis Sarafidis & Takashi Yamagata, 2023. "IV estimation of spatial dynamic panels with interactive effects: large sample theory and an application on bank attitude towards risk," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 124-146.
    7. Guowei Cui & Vasilis Sarafidis & Takashi Yamagata, 2020. "IV Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Panels with Interactive Effects: Large Sample Theory and an Application on Bank Attitude," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 535-551, July.
    9. Freeman, Hugo & Weidner, Martin, 2023. "Linear panel regressions with two-way unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    10. Gopal K. Basak & Arnab Bhattacharjee & Samarjit Das, 2018. "Causal ordering and inference on acyclic networks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 213-232, August.
    11. Vasilis Sarafidis & Tom Wansbeek, 2012. "Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 483-531, September.
    12. Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2021. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1716-1730, October.
    13. Hugo Freeman & Martin Weidner, 2021. "Linear panel regressions with two-way unobserved heterogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP39/21, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Lina Lu, 2017. "Simultaneous Spatial Panel Data Models with Common Shocks," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. Chen, Jia & Shin, Yongcheol & Zheng, Chaowen, 2022. "Estimation and inference in heterogeneous spatial panels with a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 55-79.
    16. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Martin Weidner, 2018. "Nuclear Norm Regularized Estimation of Panel Regression Models," Papers 1810.10987, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    17. Hugo Freeman & Martin Weidner, 2021. "Linear Panel Regressions with Two-Way Unobserved Heterogeneity," Papers 2109.11911, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    18. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00849071 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hou, Lei & Li, Kunpeng & Li, Qi & Ouyang, Min, 2021. "Revisiting the location of FDI in China: A panel data approach with heterogeneous shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 483-509.
    20. Li, Xingyu & Shen, Yan & Zhou, Qiankun, 2024. "Confidence intervals of treatment effects in panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    21. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Martin Weidner, 2015. "Linear Regression for Panel With Unknown Number of Factors as Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(4), pages 1543-1579, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1415-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.