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Bankruptcy in the pulp and paper industry: market’s reaction and prediction

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  • Chun-Yu Ho
  • Patrick McCarthy
  • Yi Yang
  • Xuan Ye

Abstract

This paper examines North American pulp and paper company bankruptcies that occurred between 1990 and 2009. We demonstrate that shareholders suffer substantial losses (37 %) during the month a bankruptcy occurs. Encouragingly, we show that financial ratios are useful in predicting firm failure and that failed firms are less profitable, more liquidity constrained and higher in debt leverage. Using a binary logit model in the spirit of Ohlson (J Acc Res, 19, 109–131, 1980 ), we predict financial distress for pulp and paper firms 1 to 2 years ahead of the bankruptcy. We also adapt and re-estimate the empirical model on a sample of pulp and paper firms and perform in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. For the out-of-sample analysis, our re-estimated Ohlson models correctly predict 93 % of bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy outcomes. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Chun-Yu Ho & Patrick McCarthy & Yi Yang & Xuan Ye, 2013. "Bankruptcy in the pulp and paper industry: market’s reaction and prediction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1205-1232, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:3:p:1205-1232
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0661-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Adriana Csikosova & Maria Janoskova & Katarina Culkova, 2020. "Application of Discriminant Analysis for Avoiding the Risk of Quarry Operation Failure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Tomasz Korol, 2019. "Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Wang, Hui & Li, Jiarui & Luo, Yixuan, 2024. "Bond yield effects of corporate bond default: Evidence from bond default events of 2014–2022," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Theodore Metaxas & Athanasios Romanopoulos, 2023. "A Literature Review on the Financial Determinants of Hotel Default," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak & Edward Radosiński, 2017. "The effectiveness of discriminant models based on the example of the manufacturing sector," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 27(3), pages 81-97.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forest Products; Pulp and Paper; Industry studies ; Bankruptcy; Corporate finance; G33; L67; L73; Q23;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L67 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other Consumer Nondurables: Clothing, Textiles, Shoes, and Leather Goods; Household Goods; Sports Equipment
    • L73 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Forest Products
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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