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Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty

Author

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  • K. Arin
  • Alexander Molchanov
  • Otto Reich

Abstract

The available evidence on the effects of political variables on both returns and volatility of aggregate stock indices is scant and mixed. Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to a panel dataset of 17 parliamentary democracies spanning the post-war period until 1995, we test the robustness of political variables in explaining stock returns and stock return volatility. While we find that the influence of political variables on excess returns is weak, there is evidence of some political variables explaining return volatility. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:1:p:23-38
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0601-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariana G. Davi & Marcelo S. Portugal, 2020. "Politics and finance: a study on the impact of campaign donations on Brazilian firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1057-1105, March.
    2. Julia Darby & Graeme Roy, 2019. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility: new evidence from the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 314-330, May.
    3. Ifuero Osad Osamwonyi & Osazee G. Omorokunwa, 2017. "Presidential Election and Portfolio Selections in the Nigeria Stock Exchange," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(4), pages 184-195, October.
    4. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Mohamed Sherif & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri, 2021. "Sentiment‐Apt investors and UK sector returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3321-3351, July.
    5. Jannils Łukasz, 2021. "The concept of political instability in economic research," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 268-284, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel BMA; Excess returns; Stock market volatility; C11; G11; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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