Political Business Cycles and Partisan Politics: Evidence from a Developing Economy
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0343.2012.00397.x
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Alesina, Alberto & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988.
"Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 63-82, February.
- Alberto Alesina & Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984," NBER Working Papers 1940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sachs, Jeffrey & Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984," Scholarly Articles 4553026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Lobo, Bento J., 1999.
"Jump risk in the U.S. stock market: Evidence using political information,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 149-163.
- Bento J. Lobo, 1999. "Jump risk in the U.S. stock market: Evidence using political information," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 149-163, September.
- Steven M. Sheffrin, 1989. "Evaluating Rational Partisan Business Cycle Theory," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 239-259, November.
- Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-470, May.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1992.
"Political Cycles in OECD Economies,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 663-688.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1990. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," NBER Working Papers 3478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto F & Roubini, Nouriel, 1990. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roubini, Nouriel & Alesina, Alberto, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Scholarly Articles 4553025, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
- Dopke, Jorg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006.
"Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 925-943, December.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market: Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988.
"Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
- Rogoff, Kenneth & Sibert, Anne, 1985. "Elections And Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," SSRI Workshop Series 292676, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007.
"Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility,World-Wide,"
Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers
0711, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, Worldwide," NBER Working Papers 14269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
- Fotios Siokis & Panayotis Kapopoulos, 2007. "Parties, Elections And Stock Market Volatility: Evidence From A Small Open Economy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 123-134, March.
- Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
- Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
- Chappell, Henry W, Jr & Keech, William R, 1986. "Party Differences in Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 71-74, May.
- Alberto Alesina, 1987.
"Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jef Vuchelen, 2003. "Electoral systems and the effects of political events on the stock market: The Belgian case," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 85-102, March.
- Köksal, Bülent, 2009. "A Comparison of Conditional Volatility Estimators for the ISE National 100 Index Returns," MPRA Paper 30510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
- Cumhur Erdem & Cem Kaan Arslan & Meziyet Sema Erdem, 2005. "Effects of macroeconomic variables on Istanbul stock exchange indexes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 987-994.
- Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
- Riley, William B. & Luksetich, William A., 1980. "The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 541-560, September.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, December.
- Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
- Fredrik Carlsen, 1998. "Rational Partisan Theory: Empirical Evidence for the United States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 64-82, July.
- John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005.
"The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
- John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan & Jian Hu, 2001. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks," NBER Working Papers 8092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Turhan, Ibrahim M., 2008. "Why did it work this time: a comparative analysis of transformation of Turkish economy after 2002," MPRA Paper 31158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Vihang Errunza & Ked Hogan, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of European Stock Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(3), pages 361-377, November.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
- Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government and the Benefits of a Constitution," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(3), pages 367-388, July.
- Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
- Roland Füss & Michael Bechtel, 2008. "Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 131-150, June.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
- Engle, Robert F, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87: Discussion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 103-106.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
- Fan Wang, 2018. "Elections, Political Control and Duration of Stock Market Cycles," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201810, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2018.
- Block, Steven A. & Vaaler, Paul M., 2004.
"The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 917-946, October.
- Steven A. Block & Paul M. Vaaler, 2001. "The Price of Democracy: Sovereign Risk Ratings, Bond Spreads and Political Business Cycles in Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 82, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020.
"Political Cycles and Stock Returns,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Berlemann & Gunther Markwardt, 2007.
"Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1919-1945, December.
- Michael Berlemann & Gunther Markwardt, 2007. "Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1919-1945, December.
- Brian Snowdon & Howard R. Vane, 1999. "The New Political Macroeconomics: An Interview with Alberto Alesina," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 43(1), pages 19-34, March.
- Yaser Abolghasemi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2021. "Determining the causality between U.S. presidential prediction markets and global financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4534-4556, July.
- Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008.
"Stock market volatility around national elections,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
- Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
- Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2006. "Stock Market Volatility around National Elections," Working Paper Series 2006,2, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
- Civilize, Sireethorn & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Young, Martin, 2015. "Military regimes and stock market performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 76-95.
- Reichenvater, Arno, 2007. "Business Cycles, Political Incentives and the Macroeconomy: Comparison of Models," MPRA Paper 5527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2003. "Partisan cycles and pre-electoral uncertainty," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/03, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
- Endrit Lami & Drini Imami, 2013. "Searching for Political Fiscal Cycles in Hungary," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(4), December.
- Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 2003.
"Is the political business cycle for real?,"
Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1091-1121, May.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2000. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Working Papers (Old Series) 0016, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2001. "Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?," CESifo Working Paper Series 415, CESifo.
- Juan Carlos Berganza, 1998. "Relationships Between Politicians and Voters Through Elections: A Review Essay," Working Papers wp1998_9809, CEMFI.
- Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
- Efthyvoulou, Georgios, 2011.
"Political cycles under external economic constraints: Evidence from Cyprus,"
Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 638-662.
- Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2008. "Political Cycles in a Small Open Economy and the Effect of Economic Integration: Evidence from Cyprus," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0808, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2017.
"Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies,"
Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 712-750.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2016. "Partisan Politics: The Empirical Evidence from OECD Panel Studies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6024, CESifo.
- Faraji, Omid & Kashanipour, Mohammad & MohammadRezaei, Fakhroddin & Ahmed, Kamran & Vatanparast, Nader, 2020. "Political connections, political cycles and stock returns: Evidence from Iran," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:182-199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.