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Birth Order and Mortality: A Population-Based Cohort Study

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  • Kieron Barclay
  • Martin Kolk

Abstract

This study uses Swedish population register data to investigate the relationship between birth order and mortality at ages 30 to 69 for Swedish cohorts born between 1938 and 1960, using a within-family comparison. The main analyses are conducted with discrete-time survival analysis using a within-family comparison, and the estimates are adjusted for age, mother’s age at the time of birth, and cohort. Focusing on sibships ranging in size from two to six, we find that mortality risk in adulthood increases with later birth order. The results show that the relative effect of birth order is greater among women than among men. This pattern is consistent for all the major causes of death but is particularly pronounced for mortality attributable to cancers of the respiratory system and to external causes. Further analyses in which we adjust for adult socioeconomic status and adult educational attainment suggest that social pathways only mediate the relationship between birth order and mortality risk in adulthood to a limited degree. Copyright Population Association of America 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Kieron Barclay & Martin Kolk, 2015. "Birth Order and Mortality: A Population-Based Cohort Study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 613-639, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:2:p:613-639
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0377-2
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    2. Conzo, Pierluigi & Zotti, Roberto, 2020. "Blessed are the first: The long-term effect of birth order on trust," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Black, Sandra E. & Devereux, Paul J. & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2016. "Healthy(?), wealthy, and wise: Birth order and adult health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 27-45.
    4. Björkegren, Evelina & Svaledry, Helena, 2017. "Birth Order and Child Health," Working Paper Series 2017:3, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    5. Björkegren, Evelina & Svaleryd, Helena, 2023. "Birth order and health disparities throughout the life course," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    6. Detlefsen, Lena & Friedl, Andreas & Lima de Miranda, Katharina & Schmidt, Ulrich & Sutter, Matthias, 2018. "Are Economic Preferences Shaped by the Family Context? The Impact of Birth Order and Siblings' Sex Composition on Economic Preferences," IZA Discussion Papers 11949, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Pruckner, Gerald J. & Schneeweis, Nicole & Schober, Thomas & Zweimüller, Martina, 2021. "Birth order, parental health investment, and health in childhood," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Marco Bertoni & Giorgio Brunello, 2016. "Later-borns Don’t Give Up: The Temporary Effects of Birth Order on European Earnings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 449-470, April.
    9. Kathrin Morosow & Martin Kolk, 2020. "How Does Birth Order and Number of Siblings Affect Fertility? A Within-Family Comparison Using Swedish Register Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 197-233, April.
    10. Mikko Myrskylä & Julia Hellstrand & Sampo Lappo & Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Ziwei Rao & Heikki Tikanmäki, 2024. "Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Saarela, Jan & Cederström, Agneta & Rostila, Mikael, 2016. "Birth order and mortality in two ethno-linguistic groups: Register-based evidence from Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 8-13.
    12. Kieron J. Barclay & Martin Kolk, 2018. "Birth Intervals and Health in Adulthood: A Comparison of Siblings Using Swedish Register Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(3), pages 929-955, June.
    13. Fatih Chellai, 2021. "Determinants of Under-Five Child Mortality in Arab Countries. Are the Effects Homogeneous Across Birth Order and Among Countries?," European Review of Applied Sociology, Sciendo, vol. 14(23), pages 34-49, December.
    14. Kieron J. Barclay & Mikko Myrskylä, 2016. "Parental age and offspring mortality: negative effects of reproductive aging are outweighed by secular increases in longevity," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Hamid Noghanibehambari & Jason Fletcher, 2023. "The Early Bird Catches the Worm: The Effect of Birth Order on Old‐Age Mortality," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(3), pages 531-560, September.
    16. Govert E. Bijwaard & Kieron J. Barclay, 2025. "Pathways from education to mortality, mediated through income," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 18-44, January.
    17. Lena Detlefsen & Andreas Friedl & Katharina Lima Miranda & Ulrich Schmidt & Matthias Sutter, 2024. "Are economic preferences shaped by the family context? The relation of birth order and siblings’ gender composition to economic preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 1-31, August.
    18. Park, June Woo & Nam, Giseok & Tsang, Albert & Lee, Yung-Jae, 2022. "Firstborn CEOs and credit ratings," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    19. Barclay, Kieron & Keenan, Katherine & Grundy, Emily & Kolk, Martin & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2016. "Reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality: A sibling comparison analysis using Swedish register data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 82-92.
    20. Barclay, Kieron & Keenan, Katherine & Grundy, Emily & Kolk, Martin & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2016. "Reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality: a sibling comparison analysis using Swedish register data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65602, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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