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Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches

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  • Joel Cohen

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  • Joel Cohen, 1986. "Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(1), pages 105-126, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:23:y:1986:i:1:p:105-126
    DOI: 10.2307/2061412
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joao Saboia, 1974. "Modeling and forecasting populations by time series: The Swedish case," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(3), pages 483-492, August.
    2. Jacob Siegel, 1972. "Development and accuracy of projections of population and households in the united states," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 9(1), pages 51-68, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Stefan Rayer & Stanley Smith & Jeff Tayman, 2009. "Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 28(6), pages 773-793, December.
    3. Meng Xu & Helge Brunborg & Joel E. Cohen, 2017. "Evaluating multi-regional population projections with Taylor’s law of mean–variance scaling and its generalisation," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, March.
    4. Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1988. "Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, August.
    5. Brian C. O'Neill & Deborah Balk & Melanie Brickman & Markos Ezra, 2001. "A Guide to Global Population Projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(8), pages 203-288.
    6. Jeff Tayman, 2011. "Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(5), pages 781-800, October.
    7. Bos, Eduard & Bulatao, Rodolfo, 1990. "Projecting fertility for all countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 500, The World Bank.
    8. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
    9. Dennis Ahlburg & James Vaupel, 1990. "Alternative Projections of the U.S. population," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 639-652, November.
    10. Ricarda Duerst & Jonas Schöley & Julia Hellstrand & Mikko Myrskylä, 2024. "Calibrating probabilistic forecast paths on past forecast errors: an application to the Finnish Total Fertility Rate," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Boe, Carl, 1999. "Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 259-271, July.
    12. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
    13. Lee, Yun Shin & Scholtes, Stefan, 2014. "Empirical prediction intervals revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-234.
    14. Tom Wilson & Martin Bell, 2004. "Australia's uncertain demographic future," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(8), pages 195-234.
    15. Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1991. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(2), pages 261-274, May.
    16. Nico Keilman, 2018. "Probabilistic demographic forecasts," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 025-035.
    17. Lesnoff, M., 1999. "Dynamics of a sheep population in a Sahelian area (Ndiagne district in Senegal): a periodic matrix model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 207-221, September.

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