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Calibrating probabilistic forecast paths on past forecast errors: an application to the Finnish Total Fertility Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Ricarda Duerst

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Jonas Schöley

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Julia Hellstrand

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricarda Duerst & Jonas Schöley & Julia Hellstrand & Mikko Myrskylä, 2024. "Calibrating probabilistic forecast paths on past forecast errors: an application to the Finnish Total Fertility Rate," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-016
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "All-time low period fertility in Finland: Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(3), pages 315-329, September.
    2. Joel Cohen, 1986. "Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(1), pages 105-126, February.
    3. Nico Keilman, 2018. "Probabilistic demographic forecasts," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 025-035.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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