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Smart advice for better governance: applying expert methods to high-stakes decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Dušana Dokupilová

    (Slovak Academy of Sciences)

  • Vladimíra Kurincová Čavojová

    (Slovak Academy of Sciences)

  • Vladimír Baláž

    (Slovak Academy of Sciences)

  • Eva Ballová Mikušková

    (Slovak Academy of Sciences)

  • Dagmar Gombitová

    (Slovak Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The main aim of this paper was to examine the consistency of experts (N = 71) in evaluation in high-stakes real-life decision-making, and how their consistency relates to other psychological constructs such as cognitive reflection and overconfidence. A pool of top Slovak experts was assembled, and the AHP method for eliciting policy priorities was applied. Moreover, the cognitive reflection and overconfidence of experts were measured. The consistency of experts tended to improve over time and this improvement occurred also in exercises with increased cognitive demand. Improved consistency may have resulted both from the learning effect and from better comprehension of one’s preferences. However, there was no correlation between the consistency of experts and their cognitive reflection or overconfidence. The results suggest that for technological and economic development of any state it is beneficial for real experts to decide these issues. However, experts are not perfect and free from mistakes; therefore, attention should be paid to the selection process of future experts and their learning environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dušana Dokupilová & Vladimíra Kurincová Čavojová & Vladimír Baláž & Eva Ballová Mikušková & Dagmar Gombitová, 2021. "Smart advice for better governance: applying expert methods to high-stakes decisions," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(3), pages 285-293, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decisn:v:48:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s40622-021-00288-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s40622-021-00288-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High-stakes decision-making; Analytical hierarchy process; Consistency; Government;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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