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Nonparametric estimation of conditional transition probabilities in a non-Markov illness-death model

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  • Luís Meira-Machado
  • Jacobo Uña-Álvarez
  • Somnath Datta

Abstract

One important goal in multi-state modeling is the estimation of transition probabilities. In longitudinal medical studies these quantities are particularly of interest since they allow for long-term predictions of the process. In recent years significant contributions have been made regarding this topic. However, most of the approaches assume independent censoring and do not account for the influence of covariates. The goal of the paper is to introduce feasible estimation methods for the transition probabilities in an illness-death model conditionally on current or past covariate measures. All approaches are evaluated through a simulation study, leading to a comparison of two different estimators. The proposed methods are illustrated using a real colon cancer data set. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Luís Meira-Machado & Jacobo Uña-Álvarez & Somnath Datta, 2015. "Nonparametric estimation of conditional transition probabilities in a non-Markov illness-death model," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 377-397, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:30:y:2015:i:2:p:377-397
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-014-0538-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Strzalkowska-Kominiak, Ewa & Cao, Ricardo, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation for conditional distribution single-index models under censoring," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 74-98.
    2. Amorim, Ana Paula & de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo & Meira-Machado, Luís, 2011. "Presmoothing the transition probabilities in the illness-death model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 797-806, July.
    3. Keilegom, Ingrid Van & Akritas, Michael G. & Veraverbeke, Noel, 2001. "Estimation of the conditional distribution in regression with censored data: a comparative study," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 487-500, February.
    4. Ewa Strzalkowska-Kominiak & Ricardo Cao, 2014. "Beran-based approach for single-index models under censoring," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1243-1261, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgos Bakoyannis & Dipankar Bandyopadhyay, 2022. "Nonparametric tests for multistate processes with clustered data," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 74(5), pages 837-867, October.
    2. Gustavo Soutinho & Luís Meira-Machado, 2022. "Methods for checking the Markov condition in multi-state survival data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 751-780, April.
    3. Niklas Maltzahn & Rune Hoff & Odd O. Aalen & Ingrid S. Mehlum & Hein Putter & Jon Michael Gran, 2021. "A hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities in partially non-Markov multi-state models," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 737-760, October.
    4. Guibert, Quentin & Planchet, Frédéric, 2018. "Non-parametric inference of transition probabilities based on Aalen–Johansen integral estimators for acyclic multi-state models: application to LTC insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-36.
    5. Fuino, Michel & Wagner, Joël, 2018. "Long-term care models and dependence probability tables by acuity level: New empirical evidence from Switzerland," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 51-70.
    6. Ritesh Ramchandani & Dianne M. Finkelstein & David A. Schoenfeld, 2020. "Estimation for an accelerated failure time model with intermediate states as auxiliary information," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Dennis Dobler & Andrew Titman, 2020. "Dynamic inference for non‐Markov transition probabilities under random right censoring," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(2), pages 572-586, June.
    8. Gustavo Soutinho & Luís Meira-Machado, 2023. "Nonparametric estimation of the distribution of gap times for recurrent events," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(1), pages 103-128, March.

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