IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/comgts/v19y2022i1d10.1007_s10287-021-00400-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictive stochastic programming

Author

Listed:
  • Yunxiao Deng

    (University of Southern California)

  • Suvrajeet Sen

    (University of Southern California)

Abstract

Several emerging applications call for a fusion of statistical learning and stochastic programming (SP). We introduce a new class of models which we refer to as Predictive Stochastic Programming (PSP). Unlike ordinary SP, PSP models work with datasets which represent random covariates, often refered to as predictors (or features) and responses (or labels) in the machine learning literature. As a result, these PSP models call for methodologies which borrow relevant concepts from both learning and optimization. We refer to such a methodology as Learning Enabled Optimization (LEO). This paper sets forth the foundation for such a framework by introducing several novel concepts such as statistical optimality, hypothesis tests for model-fidelity, generalization error of PSP, and finally, a non-parametric methodology for model selection. These new concepts, which are collectively referred to as LEO, provide a formal framework for modeling, solving, validating, and reporting solutions for PSP models. We illustrate the LEO framework by applying it to a production-marketing coordination model based on combining a pedagogical production planning model with an advertising dataset intended for sales prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunxiao Deng & Suvrajeet Sen, 2022. "Predictive stochastic programming," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 65-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:19:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10287-021-00400-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10287-021-00400-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10287-021-00400-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10287-021-00400-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gah-Yi Ban & Cynthia Rudin, 2019. "The Big Data Newsvendor: Practical Insights from Machine Learning," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 90-108, January.
    2. Suvrajeet Sen & Yifan Liu, 2016. "Mitigating Uncertainty via Compromise Decisions in Two-Stage Stochastic Linear Programming: Variance Reduction," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1422-1437, December.
    3. Dimitris Bertsimas & Melvyn Sim, 2004. "The Price of Robustness," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 35-53, February.
    4. Daniela Pucci de Farias & Benjamin Van Roy, 2004. "On Constraint Sampling in the Linear Programming Approach to Approximate Dynamic Programming," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 462-478, August.
    5. Julia L. Higle & Suvrajeet Sen, 1991. "Stochastic Decomposition: An Algorithm for Two-Stage Linear Programs with Recourse," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 650-669, August.
    6. Güzin Bayraksan & David P. Morton, 2011. "A Sequential Sampling Procedure for Stochastic Programming," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(4), pages 898-913, August.
    7. Dimitris Bertsimas & Nathan Kallus, 2020. "From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1025-1044, March.
    8. Jeff Linderoth & Alexander Shapiro & Stephen Wright, 2006. "The empirical behavior of sampling methods for stochastic programming," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 215-241, February.
    9. Michael Freimer & Jeffrey Linderoth & Douglas Thomas, 2012. "The impact of sampling methods on bias and variance in stochastic linear programs," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 51-75, January.
    10. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    11. Dimitris Bertsimas & Romy Shioda, 2007. "Classification and Regression via Integer Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(2), pages 252-271, April.
    12. Ilya O. Ryzhov & Warren B. Powell & Peter I. Frazier, 2012. "The Knowledge Gradient Algorithm for a General Class of Online Learning Problems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 180-195, February.
    13. Ignacio Rios & Roger Wets & David Woodruff, 2015. "Multi-period forecasting and scenario generation with limited data," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 267-295, April.
    14. Johannes O. Royset & Roberto Szechtman, 2013. "Optimal Budget Allocation for Sample Average Approximation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 762-776, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiajun Xu & Suvrajeet Sen, 2024. "Ensemble Variance Reduction Methods for Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming and their Application to the Stochastic Facility Location Problem," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 587-599, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suvrajeet Sen & Yifan Liu, 2016. "Mitigating Uncertainty via Compromise Decisions in Two-Stage Stochastic Linear Programming: Variance Reduction," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1422-1437, December.
    2. Jangho Park & Rebecca Stockbridge & Güzin Bayraksan, 2021. "Variance reduction for sequential sampling in stochastic programming," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 300(1), pages 171-204, May.
    3. Emelogu, Adindu & Chowdhury, Sudipta & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Bian, Linkan & Eksioglu, Burak, 2016. "An enhanced sample average approximation method for stochastic optimization," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 230-252.
    4. Xiaotie Chen & David L. Woodruff, 2024. "Distributions and bootstrap for data-based stochastic programming," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Ward Romeijnders & David P. Morton & Maarten H. van der Vlerk, 2017. "Assessing the Quality of Convex Approximations for Two-Stage Totally Unimodular Integer Recourse Models," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 211-231, May.
    6. Jun Li & Yizhe Huang & Yan‐Fu Li & Shuming Wang, 2023. "Redundancy allocation under state‐dependent distributional uncertainty of component lifetimes," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 930-950, March.
    7. Xiaotie Chen & David L. Woodruff, 2023. "Software for Data-Based Stochastic Programming Using Bootstrap Estimation," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(6), pages 1218-1224, November.
    8. Harsha Gangammanavar & Yifan Liu & Suvrajeet Sen, 2021. "Stochastic Decomposition for Two-Stage Stochastic Linear Programs with Random Cost Coefficients," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 51-71, January.
    9. Arnab Bhattacharya & Jeffrey P. Kharoufeh & Bo Zeng, 2023. "A Nonconvex Regularization Scheme for the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming Algorithm," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 1161-1178, September.
    10. Rebecca Stockbridge & Güzin Bayraksan, 2016. "Variance reduction in Monte Carlo sampling-based optimality gap estimators for two-stage stochastic linear programming," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 407-431, June.
    11. Panos Parpas & Berk Ustun & Mort Webster & Quang Kha Tran, 2015. "Importance Sampling in Stochastic Programming: A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 358-377, May.
    12. Powell, Warren B., 2019. "A unified framework for stochastic optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 795-821.
    13. Serrano, Breno & Minner, Stefan & Schiffer, Maximilian & Vidal, Thibaut, 2024. "Bilevel optimization for feature selection in the data-driven newsvendor problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 703-714.
    14. Viet Anh Nguyen & Fan Zhang & Shanshan Wang & Jose Blanchet & Erick Delage & Yinyu Ye, 2021. "Robustifying Conditional Portfolio Decisions via Optimal Transport," Papers 2103.16451, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    15. Meng Qi & Ying Cao & Zuo-Jun (Max) Shen, 2022. "Distributionally Robust Conditional Quantile Prediction with Fixed Design," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 1639-1658, March.
    16. Jos'e-Manuel Pe~na & Fernando Su'arez & Omar Larr'e & Domingo Ram'irez & Arturo Cifuentes, 2023. "A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation," Papers 2302.02269, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    17. Shunichi Ohmori, 2021. "A Predictive Prescription Using Minimum Volume k -Nearest Neighbor Enclosing Ellipsoid and Robust Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, January.
    18. L. Jeff Hong & Zhiyuan Huang & Henry Lam, 2021. "Learning-Based Robust Optimization: Procedures and Statistical Guarantees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3447-3467, June.
    19. Yang, Cheng-Hu & Wang, Hai-Tang & Ma, Xin & Talluri, Srinivas, 2023. "A data-driven newsvendor problem: A high-dimensional and mixed-frequency method," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    20. Löhndorf, Nils, 2016. "An empirical analysis of scenario generation methods for stochastic optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 121-132.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:19:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10287-021-00400-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.