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A copula-based heuristic for scenario generation

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  • Michal Kaut

Abstract

This paper presents a new heuristic for generating scenarios for two-stage stochastic programs. The method uses copulas to describe the dependence between the marginal distributions, instead of the more common correlations. The heuristic is then tested on a simple portfolio-selection model, and compared to two other scenario-generation methods. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Kaut, 2014. "A copula-based heuristic for scenario generation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 503-516, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:503-516
    DOI: 10.1007/s10287-013-0184-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
    2. Vaagen, Hajnalka & Wallace, Stein W., 2008. "Product variety arising from hedging in the fashion supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 431-455, August.
    3. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    4. Tim Helge Hultberg, 2007. "FLOPC++ An Algebraic Modeling Language Embedded in C++," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Karl-Heinz Waldmann & Ulrike M. Stocker (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2006, pages 187-190, Springer.
    5. Michal Kaut & Stein Wallace, 2011. "Shape-based scenario generation using copulas," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 181-199, April.
    6. Bouye, Eric & Durlleman, Valdo & Nikeghbali, Ashkan & Riboulet, Gaël & Roncalli, Thierry, 2000. "Copulas for finance," MPRA Paper 37359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    8. Jitka Dupačová & Giorgio Consigli & Stein Wallace, 2000. "Scenarios for Multistage Stochastic Programs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 100(1), pages 25-53, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nonthachote Chatsanga & Andrew J. Parkes, 2017. "Two-Stage Stochastic International Portfolio Optimisation under Regular-Vine-Copula-Based Scenarios," Papers 1704.01174, arXiv.org.
    2. Domínguez, R. & Vitali, S., 2021. "Multi-chronological hierarchical clustering to solve capacity expansion problems with renewable sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Vit Prochazka & Stein W. Wallace, 2020. "Scenario tree construction driven by heuristic solutions of the optimization problem," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 277-307, June.
    4. Wang, Shuang & Wallace, Stein W. & Lu, Jing & Gu, Yewen, 2020. "Handling financial risks in crude oil imports: Taking into account crude oil prices as well as country and transportation risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Zhaoxia Guo & Stein W. Wallace & Michal Kaut, 2019. "Vehicle Routing with Space- and Time-Correlated Stochastic Travel Times: Evaluating the Objective Function," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 654-670, October.
    6. Xiaolei He & Weiguo Zhang, 2024. "Vine copula‐based scenario tree generation approaches for portfolio optimization," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1936-1955, September.
    7. Alexandre M. Florio & Nabil Absi & Dominique Feillet, 2021. "Routing Electric Vehicles on Congested Street Networks," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 238-256, 1-2.
    8. Zhang, Dongqing & Wallace, Stein W. & Guo, Zhaoxia & Dong, Yucheng & Kaut, Michal, 2021. "On scenario construction for stochastic shortest path problems in real road networks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Zhe Yan & Zhiping Chen & Giorgio Consigli & Jia Liu & Ming Jin, 2020. "A copula-based scenario tree generation algorithm for multiperiod portfolio selection problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(2), pages 849-881, September.
    10. Rocha, Paula & Kaut, Michal & Siddiqui, Afzal S., 2016. "Energy-efficient building retrofits: An assessment of regulatory proposals under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 278-287.

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